Experiences in the Management of Disaster Risk Prevention and Mitigation November 14-15, 2001 Guatemala City W F P The world’s largest international food aid organization; The front line UN organization fighting to eradicate world hunger; Emergency and development projects in 80 countries world wide with more than 5,000 staff members; In the year 2000 provided food aid to 36 million victims of natural disasters; Has invested in the last 30 years over US$ 24 billion and more than 43 million tons of food to: combat hunger promote economic and social development, and provide relief assistance in emergencies across the world. W F P WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME WFP's mission is: 1) to save the lives of people caught up in humanitarian crises, through Food-For-Life; 2) to support the most vulnerable people at the most critical times of their lives, through Food-For-Growth; and 3) to help the hungry poor become self-reliant and build assets, through Food-For-Work. WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME Provides food aid: In Crisis Situations (80%) Complex Emergencies Natural Disasters Prolonged Relief and Recovery operations For Development Activities (20%) WFP Decentralization of Operations WFP Regional Office of Latin America and the Caribbean Established in Managua, Nicaragua in 1998 Provides operational and technical support to WFP Country Offices in the Region WFP representation in El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Haiti, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia • WFP – Framework for Early Warning System • WFP - Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping Unit • VAM Concepts • VAM Standard Analytical Framework • VAM and Early Warning • Elements for Early Warning information • Examples • Collaboration and Partnership Summary WFP – Early Warning in Disaster Management Advanced Knowledge -> Appropriate Response Food Security Baseline Logistics Capacity Assessment (LCAs) Contingency Planning WFP knowledge base Early Warning and Assessments Emergency Response Field Monitoring Baseline Analysis Preparedness Intervention Early Warning System WFP Early Warning System aims to: Use all available information and tools to define areas at risk; Monitor the climatic and other factors determining the extent of a crisis; Combine the baseline knowledge with the current information to determine the number of people at risk and/or the number of people affected by a disaster. Within WFP framework, an Early Warning System has as objectives to : •Provide information on food security of a country exposed to a risk and alert on any potential food crisis; •Provide information in order to effectively plan the necessary WFP response; •Provide in a timely manner information to experts, decision makers in food aid and other humanitarian activities, and donor countries. . Early Warning System Early Warning Information • WFP Early Warning information : Always relates to the food insecurity and food needs of a population group; Must determine if/when food aid is required to assist the population at risk; Estimates the positive impact of food aid, considering the effects of the crisis on livelihoods. Vulnerability Analysis And Mapping Unit • Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping Unit (VAM) Since 1995 within WFP structure; Today VAM units in more than 50 countries assisted by WFP in the world; VAM activities in all 11 countries of the Latin America and the Caribbean Region; VAM Unit is responsible for providing early warning information related to vulnerability to food insecurity. WFP : Activities VAM in the world • Slow-onset Crisis (Drought) WFP VAM analysis / Strong baseline knowledge and early warning information • Floods • Earthquakes • Hurricanes • Conflicts Types of disasters and WFP early warning capacity Risk Analysis review / Baseline knowledge of the risk areas/ Contingency planning VAM : Food Security-related Concepts • Food Security “Food Security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”. World Food Summit 1996 • Vulnerability The probability of an acute decline in food access, or consumption, often in reference to some critical values that defines minimum levels of human wellbeing. VAM : Food Security-related Concepts • Vulnerability is therefore summarized as follows: Vulnerability = Exposure to Risk + (In)Ability to Cope VAM : Food Security-related Concepts Vulnerability to food security 1. Risks (enviromental-political-economic) Vulnerability 2. Food security level 3. Coping mechanisms Community level } VAM – Components of vulnerability VAM : Food Security-related Concepts 1. Availability (production) 2. Access (market/prices, incomes, purchasing power) 3. Utilization (dietary habits) Food Security Dimensions Food Security Food Security Dimensions Dimensions VAM analysis of food security integrates : VAM Standardized Analytical Framework (Since 2000) SAF steps steps 1. Literature review /Secondary data analysis 2. National workshop 3. Vulnerability Issues Paper (VIP) 4. Participatory field survey 5. Vulnerability profiles (PVP) SAF products a) Geographic targeting b) Description vulnerable areas c) Identification and description of vulnerable groups d) Baseline Analysis e) Vulnerability profiles • Coping mechanisms • Causes and levels of vulnerability • Household tipology • Household food economy VAM Standardized Analytical Framework Through the results of the SAF process, VAM identifies : Vulnerable areas (at risk of disasters and/or with poorest and most food insecure population groups) Vulnerable Groups Characteristics And provides WFP with: Analysis of causes of vulnerability Recommendation on type of measures needed for an appropriate response Early Warning and WFP response : Questions to be answered • Examples: • What is the production of staple food in Cuba this year? • Will Ecuador experience a drought this season? • How were the prices of rice in Guatemala throughout the season? • Will the hurricane “Isabel” hit Guatemala in the coming days? • Which areas of Honduras will produce insufficient food ? • How much food aid will be needed to assist the most vulnerable people? Early Warning and WFP response : Questions to be answered AGRICULTURE Agro-ecological zones Types of crops / zone Surfaces cultivated Conditions of crops Pests/Diseases Crop calendars Duration of the season Yields LIVESTOCK Numbers and conditions of livestock Pasture conditions AGROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION Rainfall performance Water needs for agriculture production Water Balance (FAO Methodology) SATELLITE IMAGERY NDVI (Vegetation Index) RFE (Rainfall estimation) MARKETS Cereals Prices Stocks Livestock Prices Terms of trade Early Warning and WFP response : Elements of analysis Early Warning and WFP response : Elements of analysis FOOD STOCKS Quantities stocked in the country Food conditions Production year INFRASTRUCTURES Road network and conditions Location of main warehouses Ports/railroad network FOOD AID Supplied quantities Delivered and distributed quantities Channel of distribution Local market prices Distribution Local Purchase FOOD IMPORTS/EXPORTS Quantities imported/exported International and national prices VULNERABLE GROUPS / LIVELIHOODS Wealth of different groups in vulnerable areas Income opportunities Coping mechanisms Capacity to respond/cope with disasters Children and women nutritional status VAM : Risk and Vulnerability Analysis for Early Warning REG. ATLANTICO NORTE REG. ATLANTICO SUR JINOTEGA LEON BOACO MATAGALPA RIO SAN JUAN CHONTALES CHINANDEGA MANAGUA ESTELI RIVAS MADRIZ NUEVA SEGOVIA CARAZO GRANADA Masaya Municipios de muy alta vulnerabilidad a la inseguridad alimentaria de acuerdo al anális VAM Leyenda Muy alta vulnerabilidad a la inseguridad alimentaria PMA-Nicaragua Diciembre, 2000 Vulnerability Analysis VAM Unit Nicaragua, 2000 Climatic and Risk Analysis combined with Vulnerability analysis => Provide necessary preliminary information for emergency response VAM : Climatic Monitoring for Early Warning First Season 2001 (End of May – End of September) – Vegetation Index compared to 20-years long term average 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 05-1 05-2 05-3 06-1 06-2 06-3 07-1 07-2 07-3 08-1 08-2 08-3 09-1 09-2 09-3 Average 2001 Nicaragua 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 05-1 05-2 05-3 06-1 06-2 06-3 07-1 07-2 07-3 08-1 08-2 08-3 09-1 09-2 09-3 Average 2001 El Salvador 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 05-1 05-2 05-3 06-1 06-2 06-3 07-1 07-2 07-3 08-1 08-2 08-3 09-1 09-2 09-3 Average 2001 Honduras 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 05-1 05-2 05-3 06-1 06-2 06-3 07-1 07-2 07-3 08-1 08-2 08-3 09-1 09-2 09-3 Average 2001 Guatemala VAM : Climatic Monitoring for Early Warning Identification of geographical areas with higher climatic ‘stress’ during agricultural season Monthly Images – July 2001 July 2001 Differences in NDVI levels 20-years long-term average levels of NDVI Bare soil Sparse vegetation Light vegetation Medium vegetation High vegetation Water Average and above Below average Much below average WFP Response : Combining information to Determine requirements WFP-VAM Early Warning information is combined with : Field level Assessments (WFP or external) WFP Monitoring Information Logistics information Contingency Planning scenarios/figures in order to determine the requirements of the affected areas/populations and the consequent emergency response. Early Warning : complexity and different sources of the information The information required for early warning within WFP framework for emergencies response comes from several sources : Analyzed within WFP and U.N. System Risk and Vulnerability analysis (slow onset crisis) NDVI – Satellite imagery analysis (not produced but ‘shaped’ for WFP purposes) Agricultural Season monitoring Crop Assessments Field / Community Assessments Distribution and Beneficiaries Monitoring From External Sources : Government Early Warning systems’ reports Government Field level monitoring Other agencies field reports Specialized agencies’ Forecasts/Early Warning information Early Warning : complexity and different sources of the information In order to strengthen its Response Capacity, WFP needs and promotes an increased collaboration among agencies and among producers/users of early warning information : An Early Warning System can be effective only if it is the result of a joint effort among major partners : •Governments •Donors •U.N. agencies and other organizations involved in food security and vulnerability •Specialized organizations (providers for high-tech information) At national level, the Agencies should create working units within the Government structure to: •Coordinate and disseminate Early Warning information •Coordinate and collaborate in Emergency Responses Early Warning System : Complexity and partnership Early Warning system combines Complexity with ‘Heavy’ Information requirements… Therefore NEED FOR PARTNERSHIP! <*> Presentación PowerPoint Centro de Coordinación para la Prevención de los Desastres Naturales en América Central (CEPREDENAC). Coordinadora Nacional para la Reducción de Desastres (CONRED). Comando Sur. Presentado en: II Seminario Regional Centroamericano sobre Preparación de Desastres. PMA World Food Programme Early Warning : Experiences in the management of disaster risk prevention and mitigation. Guatemala, Noviembre 2001. xgestiónx xgestionx xlocalx xriesgox <*>