HEMISPHERIC CONSULTATION ON 

EARLY WARNING 

Comprehensive Early Warning Systems 

in the Context of Development 

By 

John C. Scott 

Center for Public Service Communications 

June 4, 2003 

Antigua, Guatemala

Introduction 

Early Warning Systems are frequently thought of in terms of the 

scientific and technical infrastructure used to assess risk and deliver 

warning information. 

System 

“a set of principals linked to form a coherent doctrine” 

To arrive at a coherent doctrine communities and nations must take 

into account the complete process and associated mechanisms for 

making political decisions based on the scientific evidence of risk 

and motivating people to take action that will save lives and 

livelihoods.

Introduction, continued 

We have only recently recognized the complexity of issues and th the complexity of issues and the 

interconnectedness of the many actors responsible for, involved in and dependent 

upon systems of early warning 

-- Scientists from many sectors involved in detecting, forecasting and predicting 

hazards 

-- Politicians who decide what warning to issue and when to issue Politicians who decide what warning to issue and when to issue them 

-- Telecommunications, broadcasting and print media professions who help package 

and deliver warning messages 

-- Community leaders who help interpret warnings to the public and ensure they are 

heeded 

-- Disaster mangers who are involved in all phases of planning and execution 

-- The community at-large 

-- Teachers, researchers and trainers who educate all those enumerated above.

Issue 1 

Early Warning not a single activity, and participants in the 

system of Early Warning represent a broad cross section of 

society, including: physical and social scientists, engineers, 

technicians, agriculturists, physicians, academicians, 

journalists, politicians, religious leaders, community activists 

as well as the community at-large. Each of these participants 

bring to the system a unique set of skills and experience. 

Although the diversity of this experience should be 

considered positive, it is frequently the case that national and 

local coordination of early warning systems is expected from 

institutions and individuals who are virtual strangers to each 

other and who, often, maintain only minimal contact.

Action 1 

Action should be taken, therefore, to promote and facilitate the exchange of 

information and knowledge between and among all actors that will lead to 

improved early warning, especially at the community level. 

To be effective EW initiatives should be: 

  Cross-cutting vs. sector-specific 

  Interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary i l 

Technical & human resources must also be committed to address catastrophic 

and chronic hazards and small/medium events in addition to large events 

All peoples, especially those with special needs, must be included in the 

process (Even if every able bodied person who understands a warning takes 

the prescribed protective action, a significant portion of the community will 

suffer, including women, children, elderly, disabled, and migrant workers, 

tourists and others who may have problems understanding local languages.

Issue 2 

The prediction and monitoring of hazards and the 

conveyance of information about warnings requires 

infrastructure and expertise that is not yet accessible by all 

vulnerable communities.

Action 2 

Financial resources are frequently an issue, but in order to 

accurately identify resource requirements all parties involved, 

including those potentially affected, must have the capacity to be part 

of the decision making process. 

At the table must be: 

  Citizens of vulnerable communities 

  Local and the national agencies and scientific and technical 

entities responsible for their safety 

  Other local/national professional and private sector entities 

  Local, national NGOs; and IOs 

  Agencies of donor and other supporting nations; 

  Agencies of the United Nations System

ISSUE 3 

National Governments have the sovereign right and 

responsibility to issue timely warnings when it has been 

determined, through scientific and other expert means, that 

segments of their populations are at risk. 

Confusion can arise when no recognizable authoritative voice 

exists that citizens can turn to for information about 

impending hazards. In such cases people may act on 

incorrect or misleading information that can lead to confusion 

and, possibly, loss of life or livelihood.

Action 3 

  Governments should be held accountable for issuing timely 

warning when reliable information of impending hazards is available. 

  Governments have an obligation to collect accurate info about 

communities at risk so appropriate strategies can be designed to 

reach them & the effectiveness of these strategies can be measured 

  Governments should identify recognizable sources for issuing 

timely/reliable information & warnings. Information should be 

provided – incl. accurate estimates of magnitude, time/scope of 

impact -- in languages and formats that enable all potentially effected 

people to take appropriate protective action. 

  Information should be distributed using all available modalities: 

word-of-mouth, newspapers, radio, television, etc.

ISSUE 4 

The public often relies solely upon national/governmental 

systems for early warning, and mobilization for prevention 

and preparedness is frequently seen as the responsibility of 

national/governmental authorities. 

Pre-disaster planning, including the development and testing 

of early warning systems can only be effective if vulnerable 

populations understand the hazards they are exposed to and 

incorporate early warning and other preparedness strategies 

into their daily routine of life, on their own initiative.

Action 4 

To reduce the reliance on a frequently overtaxed public 

sector, and recognizing the need to strengthen local capacity, 

vulnerable populations should be aware of the hazards, and 

the related effects, to which they are exposed. They should 

also learn to take specific actions, on their own initiative, that 

will minimize their threat of loss or damage. 

Local communities should have sufficient familiarity with 

hazards to which they are exposed, and leaders must be 

able to understand and process advisory information in order 

to instruct the population and engage them in ways that 

increase their safety or reduce the possible loss of resources 

on which the community depends.

Conclusion 

The importance of considering early warning (and disaster preparedness and 

mitigation and prevention) in a development context, is that development planners 

have experience at looking at multisectoral approaches to social and cultural issues. 

The culture of awareness of hazards, and the systems by which vulnerable 

communities are warned of these hazards must be an integrated part of the social, 

economic and political framework of society in such a way that it becomes a part of 

life. For it is the way to save life. 

Technology is part of the system, but not the most important part. What is needed 

most is behavior change, at all levels.







 <*> <re> <ty>  Presentación PowerPoint </ty> 

 <in>  Estrategia Internacional para la Reducción de Desastres (EIRD). Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeitbeit (GTZ) </in> 

 <or>  Hemisferic Consultation on Early Warning : Integrating early warning into public policy. </or>

 <au>  Scott, John.

 </au> <ti>  Comprehensive early warning systems in the context of development.

 </ti> <pl>  Guatemala, 3-5 jun. 2003

 </pl> xgestiónx xgestionx xlocalx xriesgox </re> <*>