International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) PROGRAMME FORUM I999 5 9 July 1999, Geneva - I Note Introduction ........................................................................................ .3 Bureau for the Programme Forum ................................................... 5 Agenda .............................................................................................. .M Opening Ceremony ............................................................................ .9 - Addresses by UN S-G and WMO S-G - Speeches by the President of the Programme Forum, the President of ECOSOC, the Chairman OF the STC, the President of the French National Committee for IDNDR, the Director of the Chinese National Committee for iDNDR, and the Vice President of Costa-Ria Coping Studies ................................................................................... 29 - “Public Perception of Disasters, Economic Impacts and Education Needs” - “Disaster Resilient Infrastructure” - “Disaster Reduction Technology” Education and Socio-Economic Concerns .................................... 3 I - Educating Future Generations - Civil Society and Partnerships - Assessment and Projection of Social and Economic Impacts - Empowerment of Local Communities - Disasters, Economy and Trade - Health Dimension in Disaster Reduction Scientific and Technological Concerns ............................................................................. 43 - Toward Integrated Risk Reduction - Information Technology for Assessment and Simulation Capacities - Safe Human Settlements in Disaster-Prone Areas - Urban Mega Disasters - Earty Warning Systems: an Integrated Process - Applying Technology for Sharing Inbrmation - Towards Earthquake Safe Cities: How to Reduce brthquake Damages - Geological Hazard Assessment - How Science tries to stop Hazards from becoming Disasters - Disaster Reduction within Development - Disaster Reduction and Recover for SustainabIe Human Development - Land Use Planning - Capcitatlng Developing Countries - Protection of Natural Resources - Vulnerability of Ecosystems and Natural Disasters - Climate Change and Natural Hazards - Experience in and from Switzerland Success Stories ................................................................................. .69 - AUSTRALIA: “Partnerships and Education through IDNDR” -JAPAN: “Establishment of t h e Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC) - Disaster Reduction ‘Cooperation through Information Sharing” Development and Environmental Concerns ................................ .59 - BANGLADESH. “Cyclone Preparedness in Bangladesh” - ZIMBABWE. “Public Awareness: Use of Forecasting as a Basis of Public Awareness” - GERMANY. “Living with Floods” - CUBA: “Achievements of the IDNDR National Committee of Cuba” - CANADA: 7he Establishment of the Institute For Catastrophic LOSS Reduction - - A Partnership between the Insurance Industry and Academe” - MOROCCO: “Case Study from Morocco” - SOUTH PAClFlC AREA. “IDNDR and the South Pacific Disaster Reduction Programme” - ARMENIA: “The Armenian National Survey for Seismic Protection” - MALI: “c;lse Study: Management of Disaster by the Local Community” .75 Open Public Forum - Community Based Disaster Reduction - Networks and Partnerships - Early Warning - Integrated Risk Management 81 87 93 95 Action Towards the Future - Regional Approach, Networking, Synergy and Coordination - Climatic Variabilities and Extremes: El Nino, La Nina - Disaster of the Future Programme for the Future - Closing Ceremony -General Conclusions and Recommendations by the Rapporteur General of the Progamme Forum - Strategy: A Safer World in the 2 1 st Century Presentation of the Conference Statement, Geneva Mandate on Disaster Reduction WMOAJNESCO - Floods SubForum on Science and Technology - Statement from the WMO/UNESCO Sub-Forum on Science and Technology in Support of Natural Disasrer Reduction - Extratropical Storms - Severe Local Storms and Tornadoes - Drought - Forest Fires - Extreme Temperatures - Dust and Sand Storms - Earthquakes - Landslides - Avalanches -Tsunamis - Storm Surges - volanoes - Tropical Cyclones List of speeches and presentations available for distribution ...I 15 I29 List of projects presented at the poster sessions upon ISDR) Lrst o/purlrcipank ( 1 12 pages with request to the Secretanat telephone. fax urrd E-mail addresses available far This document is a collection of the proceedings baseci on reports by the rapporteurs of the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) Programme Forum 5 to 9 July 1999, in Geneva, Switzerland. Proceedings of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)/UN Education and Science Organisation (UNESCO) Sub-Forum on Science and Technology have been published in a separate document by the concerned organizations. + + + Reduction (ISDR) as the overall guideline for action, and to establish : 1999, held kom The IDNDR Programme Forum 1999, convened by the IDNDR Secretariat, in collaboration with WMO and UNESCO was officially opened by the United Nations Secretary--nerd, Mr. Kofi Annan. It was conceived as the substantive closing event for IDNDRwith the objectives to: Despitea decade of dedicated efforts, the number and costs of natural disasters continue to rise, given the increasing vulnerability of our societies to natural hazards. More than ever there is a need to strengthen and broaden disaster prevention programmes and, above all, to obtain political commitment from governments, international agencies, civil society and the private sector for a proactive management of risk and application of Kience and technology at all levels to mitigate the impact of natural disasters. In this respect, the Programme Forum provided a valuable contribution by facilitating a global multlsectoral and inter-disciplinary dialogue. This resulted in the adoption of the strategy “A Safer World in the Twenty-First Century: Risk and Disaster Reduction”and the “Geneva Mandate on Disaster Reduction”. Both these documents constituted a major input into the United Nations deliberations on disaster reduction issues and the decision to establish successor arrangements to the IDNDR Following the Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) Resolution 1999/63, the General Assembly Resolution (A/54/219) endorsed the recommendations of the UN Secretary-General’s report (A/54/497) to adopt the International Strategy for Disaster an Inter-Agency Task Force, with representation from all relevant United Nations bodies, civil society and the NGO community and regional entities to serve as the main forum within the United Nations for defining strategies for international cooperation at all levels on disaster reduction, baseci on the ISDR, an inter-agency secretariat for natural diuster reduction as a distinct entity to implement the ISDRand to provide support to the work of the Task Force. The Task Force and the secretariat are placed under the direct authority OF the Under- Secretay General for Humanitarian Affairs and financed from extra-budgetay resources through a specific trust fund. The proceeding OF the Programme Forum provide a usehl guide to various activities and policies that should be put in place to create a safer world for ourselves and for future generations. They are addressed to all parts of the d i s t e r reduction constituencies. Exchange information on the achievements of the IDNDR programme; Identify remaining gaps and hture research needs in the field of disaster reduction; Propose a feasible and effective disaster reduction strategy for the 2 1 st century; and Agree on a future Framework for action in the context of the United Nations. Presldent: H.E. Amlxmador Akao, Japan Vice Presidencies: + Latin America and Caribbean (Ecuador) Africa (Ethiopia) Europe (Spain) Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) (Russian Federation) Rapporteur General: Mr. R Hamilton, Chair of the United Nations Scientific and Technical Committee (STC) on Natural Disaster Reduction Special Rapporteurs: H.E. A Tevodjere, Minister of Planning, 3enin Mr. Wmg Ang-Sheng, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China + Prof M Dr. Erdik, University OF Istanbul, Turkey, and Member of United Nations STC on Natural Disaster Reduction 5. Yoclmani, Executive Director, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) Secretary: Mr. Ph. Boulle, Director, IDNDR Secretanat ACTlON ~ ~ - - - -. - ~- - ~~~~- I ,~- - Message of Welcome to Delegations - Designation of the Bureau - Administration Announcements, Organization of th Conference - 1 1 :oc- Regional Approaches to Disaster Reduction : NetworkingAnergies and Coordination 8:30 - 9:30 9:45 9:30 ~- -- 9:45 1 :oO - 1 1 :30 ~-~ - I ~- ~ - ~ - ~-~ ~ - ~ Regional Approaches to Disaster Reduction : Networking, Synerp;ies and Coordination (continue) ~ L ~ ~ ~ 1 CLUSTER: L U N C H B R E A K - ~ - ~ - ( F R E E T I M E ) TOWARDS ThE 215T CENTURY ~ , COFFEEBREAK Resistration - ~ Success Stories ~ ~ ~ - - - - ~ -- - - and Education Needs" er Resilient Infrastructure" Educating Future Generations ~-I____-I___- 11:30 - 13:oO - 14:OO - 14:30 - ~ "DiM "Diz er Reduction Technoto&' 13:OO 14:OO 17;30 - 18:OO -~ -~ 18:30 - 19:30 - 11:30 - 1 2 : a Civil Society and Partners p- 10:30- 11:30 ~~ 12:oO - 13:OO 13:oo - 1400 14:OO- 14:30- 16:OO - 15:30- 16:OO 16:30 14:30 15:30 - 1m17:30-- Empowerment of Local Communitles I---- ~ wMo-m I Science and Technolag 10.00- 10:30 -~ - ~ ~ - ~ - ~ Opening COFFEE BREAK- - 4 Extra Troplcal Storms _ _- ~- ~- ~ + - M m a T - LUNCH BKACK (FREE TlME) + Flre Weather + Drought . 4 Extreme and Perslstent Temperatures - ~ - ~-~~ Dust and Sand Storms ~ ~ ~ ~ -. - - ~ - ~ - ~ -I----- I ~ .- OFFICIAL INAUGURATION OF THE PROCRAMME FORUM ~ ~ ~ - ~ - - - _- ~- Keynote Adrcsses by High level Dignitaries - Introductory Session and Opening Debate tation of the Coping Studies: "Public Perception of Disasters, Economic impacts ( F R E E T I M E ) ---- Sub-Session on Health Dimension in /Oraster Reduction COFFEE BEAK BREAK - - ~ - ~ - ~ 4 DAY 2: Tuesday 6 July I 9 9 9 CLUSTER: EDUCATION AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONCERNS Econo 1";"""'s. ~- L U N C H B R E A K Success Stories Assessment and Projection of Soclal and Economic Impacts . COFFEE Wrap-up Session "Open Public Forum": Networks and Partnerships ~ ~ ~ -~ 9 0 0 - 9:30 - 10-3KI Toward Intergrated Risk Reduction -~ -~ -~ ~ 9:30 10:30 - I 1:0_0_ ~- 1200 - 1 1 :30 .~ 1 - _ _ _ _ _ _ !5:30 - 16:OO 16:30 l:30- 12:oO 1Z:OO - 13:Oo - 14:OO - _ _ _ _ _ _ 13:OO 14:Op- 14:30 - Success Storles . -~ 14~30 - l5:30 .- Sak Human Settlements in Disaster-Prone A i e a r _- 16:OO - 1630 - 17:30 ~- 17:45 - 18:30 -30- 1 7 : 4 5 Wrapup Session ~ lO:3O - 11:OO 11:oo - 1 1 ; 3 0 1 "Open Public Forum": Early Warning I .~ 1 :30 - 12:30 - 12:30 - 13:06:- I4:oo 13:oo - - 14:OO - 1430.. -.i 17;30 - 17:45 -~ _ - 14:30 - 15:30_ 15:30 - 16:OO 16:Oo - 1630 1630 - 17:30 - _ _ . U 9:OO - 9:30 - I0:30 9:30 - - Development Success Stories __ Capacltatlng Developlng Countries Wrap-up Session - Conference Statement - Strategy for the Ztst Century - ~ Simulation Capacities Early Warning Systems: -. DAY 3: Wednesday 7 July 1999 CLUSTER: SCIENTlFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL CONCERNS Urban Mega Disasters information Technology for Assessment L. I An Integrated Process - for Sharing Information L U N C H B R L . ( F R E E T I M E ) ~. Towards Earthquake Safe Cities: How to Reduce Earthquake Damages becoming disasters ~- I L & R R E A K COFFEE BREAK +- COFFEE BREAK 4-1 IICTFR. Geological Hazard Assessment - How Science tries to stop hazards from L ~- ~ .- ~. . . Programme Forum I DAY 4: Thursday 8 luly 1999 nFVFlnPMFNT ANC) FNVlRnNMFNTAl TCINTFRNS Protectin of Natural Resources Disaster Reduction within Development - Disaster Reduction and Recovery for Sustainable Human I Disasters Expefience Cxmate Change and Natural Hazards - in and from "Open Public Forum" : integrated Rlsk Management - COFFEEBREAK DAY 5: Friday 9 July 1999 CLUSTER: ACTION TOWARDS THE 21ST CENTURY 1 Extreme : El NIAo. -=--- C L O S I N G SESSION la Nifiaj - Presentation of the Conclusionbf the Programme Forum by the Rapporteur General of the - Closing statement by the President of the -_ Programme Forum I w M o ~ s u b - F o n a n o n Sclence and rechnology I + Selsmlc Rlsk Assessment Earthquake Vulnerabillly -1 + + Landslides Success and Fallure + voicanoes ~ + Avalanches LUNCH BREAK (FREETUIZE) ____ + Ocean Events (Tsunami1 ~- wMo/uNEscuSub-Faranan klence and Technology + Tropical Cyclones Hoods + Rtver __ Vulnerabiilty and Awareness Panel Discussion; - B E A K .___ COFFEE BREAK COFFEE ( F R E E T I M E ) L W WETWZE) Panel Dlscwlon: Warning Capacities of Events Panel Dfscusston: Preparedness and Educatlon - .~ .~ ~- BEAK I . _____ -- ADDRESSES: MR. KOFl ANNAN. SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE UNITED NATIONS CONTINUE TO RISE” of United Nations Secretary-General KoF Annnn on the occasion of the Cfoslng of the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, delivered at fhe International Conference Center of Folhwing are the gratitude. to rise “DESPITE DEDICATED EFFORTS, NUMBER AND COST OF NATURAL DISASTERS Junegot less publicity But it causecl remark Geneva on fhe 5 July: “As the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction draws to a close we have achieved much, but we continue to confront major challenges. It is a tragic irony that 1998, the penultimate year OF the Disaster Reduction Decade, was also a year in which natural disasters increased so dramatically. At the same time, the International Decade has seen major achievements, for that, the IDNDR team here En Geneva. and their partners in and outside the UN system, deserve OUT There have been major advances in scientific cooperation Around t h e world, an interdisciplinary scientific community of meteorologists, geologists, seismologists and sccial scientists is working ever more cohesively. Despite its limited financial resources, IDNDRhas also brought together governments, NGOs, other international organirations and the private sector to work with the scientific community on disaster reduction strategies. Much hw been learnt from the creative disaster-prevention efbrt5 of poor communities in developing countries. And yet, ladies and gentlemen, we confront a paradox. Despite a decade of dedicated and creative effort by IDNDRand i t s collaborators, the number and cost of natural disasters continue The cost of weather-related disasters in 1’9% alone exceeded the cost of all such dtsasters in the whole of the 1980s. Tens of thousands of mostly poor people have died. Tens of million have been temporarily or permanently displaced. 1 998 was, in fact, a truly disastrous year. In the Caribbean, hurricanes George and Mitch killed more than 13,000. In fact, Mitch w a the deadliest Atlmticstorm in qclone in India in comparable damage. and an estimated 1O.OOO deaths. greatest single disaster of 1998 was China’s catastrophic Yangtze flood. Thousands were killed. 200yem. A India, Nepal and Bangladesh were hit by major floods, with m o r e than four t h o u w d killed. Two thirds of Bangladesh was inundated for months: millions were made homeless. But the Millions were displaced. The cost has been estimated at 30 billion dollars - yes, 30 billion dollars. 9,000 people. In Braul, Indonesia and In Afghanistan, major earthquakes killed more than Siberia, fires ravaged tens of thousands of square kilometers of forest. The developed states suffered fa less; even so, a single ice storm in January in Canada and the northeast of the United States let? 2 billion dollars worth of damage in its wake. 1990s was =me nine times higher than in the 1 %Os, and it is The cost of disasters in the becoming increasingly clear that the term “natural“ for such events is a misnomer. No doubt there will always be genuinely natural haurds - - whether floods, droughts, storms or earthquakes. But today’s disasters are sometimes man-made, and nearly always exacerbated by human action - - or inaction. Obviously disasters like Mikh can exacerbate poverty. But poverty can also exacerbate disasters It is no accidwt that 90 percent of disaster victims worldwide are in developing countries. Poverty and population pressures are forcing growing numbers of poor people to live in harm’s way - - flood plains, earthquake-prone zones and unstable hillsides. Their extraordinary vulnerability is perhaps the single most important cause of disaster casualties. And as cities in developing countries grow ever larger, z, urban communication, energy and transportation systems g o w ever more dense and complex, the risk of high cost loses is ever greater. Disasters can also k made worse by faulty development practices. Massive logging operations reduce the soil’s ability to absorb heavy rainfall. That in turn makes erosion and flooding more likely lhe destruction of wetlands reduces the land’s capacity to &sorb heavy run- =me 1 Off. Extreme climatic events may also be caused in part by global warning, which is in turn partly caused by increased carbon emissions From burning fossil fuels. Can it really be acolncidence that the warmest year recorded since worldwide measurements were first taken was years ago? 1998 and disaster relief are complementary, subsumed by the other. SO Much remains to be achieved. The programmes initiated during the decade point the way. in the medium and long term is to strengthen and broaden programmes which W e must. above all. shift from a culture of reaction to a culture of prevention. The humanitarian community does a remarkable job in responding to disasters. But the most important task reduce the number and cost of disasters in the first place. Prevention is not only more humane than cure; it is also much cheaper, Disaster reduction and yet quite different. Each is vital. Neither should be Achieving prevenhon, as the IDNDRteam and their partners have tirelessly argued, requires better early warning of impending disasters to give vulnerable populations time to move out of harm’s way. It means better policies to mitigate the effects of natural disasters. But above all, it means greater efforts to reduce vulnerability in the first place. Unfortunately, such efforts rarely receive much publicity and thus too often fail to engage the attention of top policy makers. Early warning is critical. But it will achieve little unless we use it for a combined effort by all sectors to plan ahead and build up people’s capacity to respond rapidly at the local level. And if we are to make real progress, we need a better understanding of the scientific and technical requirements of prevention. And we need to apply them resolutely in all our policies on development, housing and land use. The scientific community understands the importance of the connection between natural disasters, climate change, and land use. The challenge now is to communicate this understanding more effectively to citizens and policy makers. Prevention policy is too important to be left to governments and international agencies alone. To succeed it must also engage civil society, the private sector and the media. We know what has to be done. What is now required is the political commitment to do it. Of course the United Nations is not alone in the disaster prevention field. But it has a special leadership role thanks to its universal character, its broad policy agenda, its capacity for acting as an honest broker and itsvital role as a forum for global dialogue. Real progress will require Member States, NGOs and International Organizations to work together on advocacy, networking and consensus building, creating the sorts ofgloM coalition that we saw in the campaigns to ban landmines and establish the International Criminal Court. Among our most pressing tasks is to create clear guidelines for future action at all levels. Above all, let us not Forget that disaster prevention isa moral imperative, no less important than reducing the risks of war. 1 applaud your extraordinary work over the past decade, and I share your determination to work even harder in the years ahead. Thank you all.” 5)uly I999 PROF. C.O.P. OBASI, SECRETAFWGENERAL OF THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION Distinguished Secretaryikneral of the United Nations, Your Excellencies, Distinguished guests, Ladies and Gentlemen. the Secretary-General of rhe Unired Nations, for gracing this occasion with his It is indeed an honour and a privilege for me to address this Forum, on a subject of increasing concern to humanity. On behalf of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and on my own, I wish to thank the organizers of this Forum and particularly, Mr Philippe Boulle, the Director of the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) Secretariat, for inviting me to address the Forum. It gives me great pleasure to also express my thanks and appreciation to Mr Kofi Annan, presence, and for his leadership. commitment and support to all efforts aimed at reducing the impact of natural disasters, for the welfare of humankind. and economic disruption caused by natural disasters such as earthquakes, Your Excellencies, Ladies and Gentlemen, You will recall that in 1987, the United Nations adopted Resolution 42/169 on IDNDR and decided to designate the 1990s as the International Decade For Natural Dister Reduction. This came about as a recognition of the very severe damasages resulting from natural d~sasters that affect the fragile economic infrastructure of developing countries, especially the least developed. tand- locked and island developing countries, and thus hampering their development process. Indeed. in 1979, hurricane David that struck Dominica had set back the Gross Domestic Product of that county by at least five years. The objective set for the Decade was therefore to reduce, through concerted international action, especially in developing countries, the loss of life, property damage, and social wmdstorms (tropical cyclones, tornadoes etc 1 tsunamis, Roocls, landslides, volcanic erupbons, wildfires, griushoppr and locust infestations, drought and desertifidion and other calamities of natural origin. The initiatives of the UN General Assembly was timely because, as we now know, dl the disaster-causing events had occurred with higher frequencies and intensities during the Decade in alf parts of the world. Your Excellencies, Ladies and Gentlemen, It has long been known that over 70 per cent of all natural dister-causing phenomena are meteorological and hydrological in origin For this reason, the primary responsibilities of all national Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) are the provision of information and services for the safety of life and property OF the citizens of their respective countries. As WMO works very closely with these Services, the primary objectives of its Programmes are such that the NMHSs have access to global data and information that are needed for timely warnings aimed at reducing the loss of life, property damage and social and economic disruption caused by natural disasters It is to be recalled that such activities were in fact initiated by the predecessor of WMO, namely the International Meteorological Organization (IMO) whose establishment in 1873 was prompted by the need for weather forecasts to improve safety at sea. Even in recent years, natural disasters associated with meteorological and hydrological phenomena are costing the world economy about US$50 billion per annum. These dissters have also causecl suffering to more than two billion people since 1965 and three million lives have been lost. We only need to recall a few of the recent disasters caused by Humcane Mitch (1 998) in Nicaragua, Honduras and Guatemala; the adverse impacts of the 1 997/98 El Nitio in Ecuador and Peru; the flooding of the Yangtze River in China ( 1998) and those of River Oder in Poland, Czech (1 997); the tsunami affecting Papa New Guinea (1 998); the forest fires ( 1997). The list is avery long one. Republic and Germany in Indonesia and the associated smoke in South East Asia Mr Secretary-General, Your Excellencies, A key concern of the Decade is the application of science and technology to mitigate the impact of natural disasters. As a scientific and technical Organization, WMO has therefore been in the forefront of such applications especially in the mitigation of weather-, flood- and climate- related disasters. Furthermore, WMO has k e n very much involved in the planning of IDNDR and has maintained an active role in the implementation of the resolutions and decisions of the United Nations General Assembly as well as the Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action on naturai disaster reduction. In particular, the WMO Congress, the highest policy-making M y of the Organization, adopted in 1991 a Plan of Action for the IDNDR In thisconnection, WMO continues to give high priority to the collection, processing md exchange of data on natural hazards of meteorological and hydrological origins for national, regional and global use, particularly for the security of property and safety of life. The inkitstructure maintained by WMO and the NMHSs for generating data and information in support of natural disaster reduction include, among others, the following: (a) A global network of about 10,ooO surface stations, 700 ocean buoys, 7300 ships and l o 0 0 upper air stations, complemented by over 45000 aircraft observations per day and those from a constellation of ten geostationay and polar-orbiting meteorological satellites. weather radars and automatic weather stations, within the context of the WMO World Weather Watch (WWW) Programme; (b) A global network of hydrological stations, being further enhanced through the World Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS); (c) A network of over 340 stations under the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) for the monitoring and prediction, among others, of transboundary air pollution including radioactivity, changes in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, and the depletion of the protective ozone layer; (d) A network of World and Regional/Specidized Centres as well as national Centres of Meteorological and Hydrological Services, providing routine and emergency forecasts and warnings of hazardous meteorological and hydrological conditions such as tropical cyclones, severe storms, droughts and floods; (e) A series of five Regional Tropical Cyclone bodies which coordinate forecasts and warnings on tropical cyclones and related phenomena such as floods and storm surges in the respective areas. These bodies are of particular importance to the implementation of relevant wrnponents of the Barbados Programme of Action in support OF the Small Island Developing States (SIDS); (9 Specialized Centres For issuing warnings of tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, focust infestations, forest fires and other environmental hazards; and (9) A network of 23 Regional Meteorological Training and Research Centres. For example, during the Decade, WMO specifically organized training courses for over 1 ,OOO meteorologists in tropicat cyclone forecasting and offered over 3.000 fettowships on subjects related to disaster mitigation. In order to enhance the capacities of national Meteorological and Hydrological Services to provide timely warnings and advisories of weather- and climate-related natural disasters such as tropical cyclones and droughts, WMO has provided, during the Decade period, approximately USB200 million of technical assistance in support of national and regionat development projects, In addition to the long-term activities, WMO has developed and implemented the following projects, specially geared to the Tropicuf goals of the IDNDR: Cyclone Waruing Sgsfew for the South-Wesf Indm Ocean Region - to upgrade substantially the warning system through the application of meteorological Mtellite and computer technology, and the transfer of scientific knowledge; Comprehenswe Risk Assessment - to promote a comprehensive approach to risk assessment in order to help reduce loss of life and property caused by flooding and other natural disasters; System for Tdmfogy Euhanp fur Natural Disusfm (STEND) - to identify and facilitate the trader OF technology For use in reducing the impact OF natural disasters. In addition, WMO’s Hydrologid OperationaI Multipurpse System (HOMS) helps in technology transfer related to flood For-ting; The development, jointly with the International Council for Science ([CSU), of a pilotless aircrolf to improve the observation of tropcal cyclones Furthermore, the WMO World Weather Watch network also supports other comprehensive early warning programmes dedicated to specific hazards, such as the communication of information and warnings about volcanic ash clouds in cooperation with International Civil Aviation Organiution (ICAO), dissemination oftsunami warnings in cooperation with UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), and the communication OF information about nuclear accidents, in cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). WMO has also collaborated with the World Tourism Organiution in the preparation and publication of a handbook on natural disaster reduction in tourist areas. M r Secretary-General, Your Excellencies, The advent of increasingly powerful computers, improved observational capacity using satellite-based sensors, telecommunications anci enhanced research efforts have led to improved understanding and prediction of weather and climate systems. Such advances have enabled the provision of skillful weather breasts and warnings. of up to about 10 days in advance m the extra- tropical regions. Such information h a k e n useful in minimizing the negative consequences of natural disasters on water resource management, energy uw, transportation, aggriculturd production and many other sociw-economic activities. In addition, intensive monitoring and data collection of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean, carried out during the Tropical Ocean and GLobal Atmosphere (TOGA) Project ( 1'385 - 1994), resulted in a breaktbrough of knowledge in El Niiio prediction. Thew developments in El Niho prediction of a few sei15ons to a year ahead have k e n successfully used in many regions for early warning of El Nifio-related extreme weather and climate events and the nssoCiated socic- 1997/98 El Nit70 event: Evahatbn and Projections, economic impacts. Such prediction capability now form crucial components of early warning and dkter preparedness activities in many regions ofthe world where strong El Nitio signals have been detected. In this regard, the International held in Ecuador in 1998, recognized the importance of such capability in support of sustainable development. It is to be recalled that the 1997/98 El Nino causecl global damage of at least US$34 197Os, Sernhar on the billion. That Seminar also agreed on the neecl for the establishment of an International El Niiio Centre which Ecuador is prepared to host. It is to be noted, however, that tbe performance of the new generation of climate models used in m n a l prediction needs further improvement in some regions of the world, such as in the tropics, where relatively more research have to be carried out, and where the networks of surface and upper air olxervations are often sparse. In addition, considerable research is still required to fully understand the processes involved in the space-time evolution of most of the systems which result in nature such as hailstorms, which are local or sub-regional in natural disters, especially tho= lightning, thunderstorms and tornadoes. A scientific challenge for the next century is to further explore and enhance those advances in science and technology relevant to the mitigation of natural disasters. To date, the prediction of weather-related disasters with good lead-time and adequate preparedness is still the k t disaster mitigation option. Indeed, studies of the economies of disasters showed that for every dollar spent on prevention and preparedness, between US$ I 0 0 and 1 OOO are required for an equivalent effect after a disaster. In addition. it is not pssible to attach a monetary value on the life ofa human king. In its efforts to continually improve the capability of skillful prediction of weather and climate including natural diuster-causing events, WMO in collakration with the IOC of UNESCO and ICSU has been implementing a Climate VuriuSility and Predictability (CLNAR) pruject under the World Climate Research Programme. The project is building upon the achievements of TOGA. Also, WMO Congress h a recently instituted a new research project entitled World Weather Research Programme mainly to better understand the intensive weather phenomena that are responsible for disasters. Mr Secretary-General, Your Excellencies, Intensive weather and climate phenomena that result in natural disasters constitute a normal component of the global climate system. They had occurred in the past and will continue to occur in the future. What will be required is to further understand their nature. For instance, it has been noted that since the early El Niiio phenomena have k e n more frequent than La Niiia. Associating some of these observed extremes to global warming is still a question of xientific debate, due to limitations of data, and the scientific knowledge for the detection arxl attribution of observed dimate variability and dimate change signals. The Second Assessinent Report of the WMO/UNEP Inkrguvernmentd Panel on Climrate Change (IPCC) issued in 1995 contajned an assessment of the impact of climate change on phenomena that can result In natural disasters While more research is required, It is expected that a warmer climate will result in a more intense hydrological cycle leading to increased drought conditions in some areas and f l d s in others. The Third IPCC Assessment Report which is expected to be issued in the year 200 1 will provide further insights into the subject. Mr Secretary-&nerd, Your Excellencies, Ladies and Gentlemen, This Forum is expected ro propose a cost-effective straregy as well as guidelines and a programme OF action for a coordinated and comprehensive approach to the reduction of the impact of natural disasters, as a contribution to sustainable development in the 21st century. In undertaking these tasks the Forum should take the following into account. Firstly, the need to critically mess the current state of the science and technology used in natural disaster reduction and prevention, identifying improvements made during the Decade and, most importantly, making suggestions for future operational and research programmes to ensure continued progress Some of the ares of focus should include the enhancement of current scientific ability to forecast geophysical events that cause natural disasters, and the strengthening of scientific and technological infrastntcture, including observational networks, to support nations in natural disaster mitigation. Particular emphasis should be placed on existing national, regional and international capacities to determine vulnerability, undertake preparedness actions, provide warnings and promote awareness through public education programmes. Secondly, the Forum might wish to propose how best the regional centres, especialty those in developing countries, which monitor and provide early warnings should be further supportd. As many of the disasters have regional and global dimensions, the resources required are sometimes beyond the capacity OF many countries A god example of the global dimension of natural disasters is the worldwide occurrence of extreme weather, hydrological and climate NiAo/La Mia episodes. In lbis connection, events, causing disasters which are observed during El an El Niiio International Centre could be established, to be hosted by Ecuador as earlier indicated. Thirdly, as the major early warning tools in the 20th century were products of research including the current ability to provide skillful prediction of El Niiio, the Forum should propose how best to enhance support For continued research at national. regional and gIoM levels. WMO will continue to provide the international coordination of relevant research through its Atmospheric Resfarch and Environment and its World Clirnate Prograrnrnes to enable the scientific community and all Member countries to maximize the benefits from all research results which may be useful for eariy warning and disaster preparedness. Fourthly, there is a need to identify an intergovernmental mechanism For addressing earthquakes and volcanic eruptions so that the Occurrence OF these phenomena are better addressed. Mr Secretary-General, Your Excellencies, The implementation of the action plans for the Decade has resulted in significant awareness for enhanced collaboration between the scientific and technical agencies and the hurnanitatian part~cularly within the United Nations System. In our view, the and development agencies, humanitarian and development components have to be coordinated by the Office for the Coordinator of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), while the scientific and technical aspects is to be coordinated by an Inter-Agency Secretariat supported by all relevant UN Specialized Agencies and Programmes. Such an arrangement will ensure the enhancement of the scientific and technical programmes in support of the mitigation of natural disasters. As we move into the next millennium, there will be increasing concern on how to more effectively address the wide-ranging effects of natural disasters. Although some progress have been made during the Decade, much more remains to be done. In some circles, it is still believed that the answer to such questions is in the enhancement of humanitarian assistance. Such k l i e f cod and not much can be done about is based on the philosophy that natural diwters are acts of them. Our view is that science and technology can make the required difference. This is the case with hgladesh where in 1970 about 300,000 people lost their lives when struck by a tropid cyclone. A similar intense cyclone that struck in 1994 caused a loss of less than so0 people due to enhancement of scientific and technological support in mitigation efforts. I hope therefore that this Forum will look back on the significant difference made by science and technology, over the Decade period, and formulate with conviction, appropriate strategies to address the related concerns of humanity in the 2 I st century. Thank you. H.E. AMBASSADOR N. AKAO, PERMANENT REPRESENTATIVE OF 1APAN canied needs are to Forum, ;uxl for the efforts and d5 chairman of the I994 World Conference on Natural Disaster was hosted by Japan in the dty ofYokoharna. The I had the honour to Serve Reduction, the midqmint in the Conhence, which wds attended by delegations from 1 55 countries arxl tenitones, United Nations business and agencies. academia, NGOs, turned out to a great success with the as PRESIDENT OF THE PROGRAMME FORUM and Beyond to the 2 I st Century" Distinguished delegates, Ladies and Gentlemen, First ddl, I am very mwh honoured to be given this opportunity to chalr the IDNDRProgrmme bnng the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction to its condusion by recalling what we have originally aimed, reviewing what we have eventually achieved and refining where h e like TO express my hewfelt out for the future. I would appreciation for the excellent job done by the United Nations IDNDR Seuetariat in mmging this work that have been put into this Forum by nanonal delegations well. Forum, which will "A Message from the Yofohama Conference t o The Programme Forum i n Geneva also Yokohama Decade, which pmrate plan adoption ofthe ' Yokchama Strategy d Action for a Safer World" and the 'Yokohama Mesage". and At the outset of this tday's Programme Fomm, dlow me to share with you what 1 believe the mesage was, as it formed the directions and prionties in the field of natural disaster is the essence ofthe This Message. be Yokohama reduction in the second half of the Decade. The Yokoh;una M w g e stated "disaster prevention, mitigation, prepxdness and relief are four elements which amtribute to a d gain from the implementation ofsus~nable development policies.'' "Prevention is ktter than cure." As you have heard, the message is too simple to forget it; but it is 450 very difficult to realize. of Itwaswell prepared,withtheaudi~fiveyearslaterinmind, ~itcertajnlydidnotmitigateourwork during the second half On the contrary, much work h s been undertaken to let the highlights of how japan followed up the Message, in my the Decade. message materialize Let me give you =me capacity w head of the Japanese Delegation. For cross-border regional cogeraTiOn, ]apn opened rhe Asian Disaster Reclunkon Cenrer in the Kobe last July, the city now rernakihly recovering from a devastating earthquake in A s i i Disaster Reduction Center will serve as one dthe central organizations of multilateral cogeration in the disaster-prone Asian region by promoting information exchange and joint research among Asian ancl control and in flood city d countnes. For technology transfer Japan has k e n engaging in human rexxlrce development tr;uning, progrmrnes in developing uxlnnies in h lighrdd-re pressing need fardkter preventim technology. We have provided cogeration fwlmining programmes and technical cooperation in areas such as seismic engineering and meteorology. I W5. The sbo (landslide prevention), Japan has also made significant contributions in financial terms and in human resource5 to the IDNDRSecretiviat. This continuous support includes the "RADIUS" project which develop techniques for forecasting and preventing earthquake damage in urban areas, the outcome of which will k disclosed at one dthe s i o n s ofthis Forum. I am confident that all of you, witb the Yokohama M v e in your mind, have dealt with the mitigation d natural disasters in the latter half of the Decade. In my capacity i\s chairman dthis Forum, I strongly encourage you to present to us what you have achieved in the coming five clays. Each of the presentation and the wbsequent discussion will, I believe, bring this Forum to a success. Distinguished Delegates, Ladies and Centlernen, The need for concerted international efforts for disaster reduction does not end because the ten year programme oFlDNDRcomes to its conclusion. The international community will need to build on the achievements and intentions of the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction and continue to share their experiences and diuster prevention technology so as to further progress in mitigating the damage from natural diters in the twenty-first century. We know that the Secretary-Generd is putting forward proposals for setting up an appropriate would bring h u t concerted global action to continue the work done y IDNDR As we plnfform that can see from the presentations of regional and national IDNDRxhievements, the importance of the functional continuation of the existing internatid framework as well as the regional institutions beyond the Decade is being emphasized. Natural disaster is a real problem. More than twenty lives were last in Hiroshima quite recently, a dreadful reminder of the power of nature. we end the Decade and proceed into a new millennium, we still are not Ale to eliminate natural dkastters, nor the devastating damage they cause. Nature is sure to take advantage of yet namely the concentration of population and industry. metropolis of Yokohama. As another new vulnerability of ours, But let us not be dixouraged by this. Let us not let disasters prevent us from working together, shtuing our experience and taking further steps. 1 am happy to reaffirm that Japm will continue to play an active role in disaster prevention cooperation through the ADRC as well as through bilateral and multilateral ODA. Ftve years ago, we m e together at the =ide Tday we gathered in the mountainous lake city dGmeva. Let mother nature inspire you, to take pat in actiie discussion of the issues coming up in this Forum, to lay the groundwork for pooling the wisdom and energy towards the cmrnon goal of mitigating natural disasters, so that vely 50017 in the next century, we will k able to give a sigh of relief, Thankyou Mr. M. LEGGERI, DEPUTY PERMANENT REPRESENTATIVE TO THE UN ON BEHALF OF H.E. AMBASSADOR FULCI, PRESIDENT OF THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COUNCJL (ECOSOC) OF THE UNITED NATIONS The President of ECOSOC, A m k d o r Fulci. has asked me to convey to you this message: “Ladies and Gentlemen, You are gathered here in Geneva this week to review IDNDR’s achievements over the past ten years and to formulate an action programme for disaster reduction in the twenty-first century. This is a challenging task. Holding d substantive Forum as a component of ECOSOC already represents an important innovation. I am convinced that the quality and depth of your presentations and facilitate the work of ECOSOC. providing a sound basis for decision- discussions will greatky making on future arrangements, 1998 has again placed natural disasters visibly on the international agenda. The message that this Forum is sending to the world is that disaster reduction is feasible and possible. Vulnerability can be reduced; natural phenomena need not turn into disasters that kill and impede severely on economic wellbeing. Technological tools for diuster reduction are continuously improving. and their social and humanitarian implications are becoming ever clearer. I a m impressed by the variety of issues to be discussed during this meeting. This variety testifies to the u n i v e d and multi-sectoral character of disaster reduction, and to the commitment of the international community to effective and concerted action. I therefore look forward, like all my colleagues, to receiving the results of the Programme Forum and your strategy of action for the future. I wish all partners of the IDNDR Framework for Action a successful conference.” MR. R. HAMILTON, USA, CHAIR OF THE UNITED NATIONS SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL COMMI'ITEE ON NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION AND RAPPORTEUR GENERAL OF THE PROGRAMME FORUM Good afternoon, Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr. Secretary-General , Excellenues, 1 appreciate the opportunity to join in welcoming the participants to the Programme Forum, the final event of the Internxional Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. I an participating in this opening session in my capacity iu Char of the IDNDRScientific and Technical Committee, the 25-member group of experts who have been responsible for reviewing overall programs of the Decade. I should note that the STC has completed its report to the Secretary-General assessing progress during the Decade and identifying challenges for the future, and that reporr is available at this meeting. At this opening s i o n , hoping to stimulate your interest in the report, I would like to briefly mention the five challenges: * * 9 * First, to integrate disaster prevention and mitigation into overall economic planning; it is not logical to do otherwise. Second, to anticipate the vulnerabilities being created by increasing population concentrations in large urban centers, that is, rnegacities, with their dependencies on complex infrastructures. Third, to reduce the vulnerability of ecosystems and environmental resources to natural hazards, which directly affects livelihoods and the quality of life. Fourth, to improve disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities in developing countries, 50 they can better manage their own risks. And fifth, to assure effective coordination and implementation of programs. On this last point, I commend the United Nations for focussing worla attention on the importance of natural disaster reduction, and I urge the UN to lead us into the 2 1 st century. Along these lines I make one recommendation: prevention and mitigation of natural disasters should not be subordinated to emergency response and recovery. Histoty shows that humanitarian crises always absorb all the available resources. leaving nothing for long-term prevention and mitigation strategies. Moreover, the nature of emergency response, dealing with short-term housing, fad, and health needs, is inherently different from prevention and mitigation, which deal with land use, building practices, and warning systems. of natural disaster prevention and mitigation should be separate from but Coordination linked with, coordination of emergencies. Secrel rariat, those the IDNDR a successful program, especially the this opportunity to thank all those who have contributt 3d to Member States ; that have provided the financial resources and that have conducted programs, and the experts who have given their time to the STC Finalfy, I would like to take making 1 welcome you to the Programme Forum. Thank you. MR. CH. KERT, FRANCE, PRESIDENT OF THE NATIONAL COMMlTTEE FOR IDNDR. MEMBER FOTHE FRENCH PARLIAMENT fTranslatd from French] Mr. Chairman, Mr. Secretary-General, Excellencies, Ladies and Gentlemen, before the end of this century, one that is so important in terms of scientific You have put a number of questions to me. You have aslted me how France has taken up this Decade, the I.& progress. the last decade in a millennium where we will have to build a new world. How hm France taken up its destiny during this decade, faced with an increLase of major risks, the ignorance and fear of some, and the economic constraints. The expenence of IDNDRcalls for establishing d more responsible prevention society, one that is characterized by greater solickuity, one more open to the rest of the world and in particular to developing countries. We have noted greater impetus between I332 and 1995 to bridge the decade, France During the Idst h a realized that globalization, demographic pressure, urban growth phenomenon and the changes in our economies have inexorably led us to increasing vulnerability of our modern socktie5 We had theoretic systems but they had not k n wide spread in implementatjon. gaps. which has enable France to mike progress We have had a very specialized scientific approach We then have considered science of nature, engineering, social and human sciences, thus changing our way of thinking. Experts and governments have accepted to opening up co local groups. l o ~ d communities and the civil society. Politicians and technical experts have understood each other better. last In the three years. France enjoys a strong symbolic presence for the evclluation of risks with a planning commissioner in the executive and a parliamentarian responsible for technological and scientific choiccs in the legislative. Frances wanted its National Committee to open up. A specific working group was set up along with demonstration projects with respect to what can k done at the urban level and specific projects organized in Point-&--Pitre, Nice and Grenoble where d major meeting was held recently. We have concentrated on cooperation in the European sphere and international cooperation such ;is that in the Caribbean and in the Mediterranean. in particular concerning the protection of Ladies and Gentlemen, that together we have been able to deal with the forest. and 1 think, problems better. It is a good idea to meet together in Geneva. First of all we emphasize the eswntial need to see prevention integrated compktety in our programmes tosether with land use and developmcnt programmes for a sustainable development of human establishments. Can we accept people not realizing what risks represent? No. We therefore need to exchmge experiences, to share our risk stock, to realize more a b u t risk and hazards. We need to mobilize our efforts to prepare individuals in terms of prevention by looking at the role of NC& and civil society given that they all hme their specific responsibilities. We need to look into the proposals to establish a World Prevention Fund comparable to the World Environment Fund & a prevention policy necessitares financial resources. Can we accept people not realizing what risks represent? No. We therefore need to exchange experiences, to share our risk stock, to realize more about risk and hazards. We need to mobilize our efforts to prepare individuals in terms of prevention by looking at the role of NGOs and civil society given that they all have their specific responsibilities. We need to look into the proposals to establish a World Prevention Fund comparable to the World Environment Fund as a prevention policy necessitates financial resources And, very frankly, that are the two major ideas which have been present throughout our work. First. the emergence of a new idea of risks associating science, education, technology, new communication and, media. and second, a 21st century culture enabling us to build a world characterized by greater solidarity and, we hope, more haternity. People have to k Familiar with disasters, which they have suffer, sometimes even pemnally. We hope that the coming century will be characterized by our greater role. Societies wiIl remain fragile and vulnerable. It is because they are asking still today abour risks that we need to provide a reply We need to have international focal points Martin Luther King hoped that people would be able to have three meals per day to fulfill their needs. 50 we need to have freedom and equality to fed our minds. We saw that we can all work together to prepare the Forum in Geneva. We all saw that people needed knowledge in order to promote their individual security, which is the greatest need. And we note today that in one way or another we have to continue our efforts outside and within the United Nations system to maintain an interagency mechanism in order to encourage international cooperation. In the way of conclusion I would like to say that the Forum is very important. Let us give a face, with a pronounceable word, to our struggle for the coming decades. Let us act together to find the financial resources enabling us to continue our efforts. And let us be courageous enough to kljeve that everyone will be able to have access to this new culture, the culture of risks. New solidarity is opening up its doors broadly to this new culture and we can call this the oath of Geneva. Thank you. H.E. FAN BAOJUN, PEOPLE‘S REPUBLIC OF CHINA, VlCb: CHAIRMAN AND SECRETARY-GENERAL OF CNCIDNDR, MINISTER OF CIVlL AFFAIRS Mr. Chairman, Ladies and Gentlemen, First of all, please allow me. on behalf of the Chinese delegation to convey our warm congratulations to the opening of this Forum. The aim of IDNDR is to effectively mitigate natural disasters through concerted efforts worldwide. Over the decade. the United Nations system has been playing a positive role and scored outstanding arhievements in promoting IDNDRactivities in a far-reaching way and raising the public awarertes of natural disaster prevention. The Chinese Government highly appreciates these achievements. reduction, organizing and coordinating relevant departments and NCOs as well as The Chinese Government attaches great importance to natural disaster maiagement aid reduction work. While devoting ~tself to the economic construction, it has established the significant position of natural disaster reduction in the national economic construction and social development. Since its establishment in April 1989, the China National Committee for IDNDR (CNCIDNDR) has done a great deal in formulating the national plan and policies for natural disster providing guidance to local governments to a n y out disaster reduction activities. In April 1998. the Chinese Government promulgated the “National Natural Disaster Reduction Plan of the People’s Republic of China ( 1998-201 0)”, which clarifies the p i d i n g principles, tasks and measures for natural disaster reduction, and put forward major actions to be taken. The Chinese government has strengthened the legal construction of natural dimter reduction. Since 1989, several law5 have come into force, such as “The Nationd Earthquake Prevention and Disn5ter Reduction Law of the People’s Republic of China”; “The National Fire Fightiny Law of the People’s Republic of China” and ‘The Flood Control Lnw of the People.5 Republic of China“. These laws have ~radually provided a sound legal basis for natural disaster reduction. In the 1330‘s, China has aperienced many severe natural disasters such as floods, 1998 floods along the valleys of the Yangtze earthquakes and droughts. In particular. the great River, Nen River and Songhua River have k e n seldom seen in history Confronted with threats riaturd disasters. the Chinese Government and the Chinese people struggled together ns one to achieve one victory after another in the fight against natural disasters. VlCE from During the unyielding struggle against natural disasters, an operational mechanism for comprehensive natural diwiter reduction with Chmese characteristics has come into king and k e n improved. which could be dexribed as “overall decision-making and coordination at various levels with a due division of labor; well-planned organization and m a paticipation by the whole nation; guiding by science and technology and stress on prevention: and promotiny beneficial measures to remove disaster risks and ensure developrnent.” ln June 19’99, the United Nations and the Chinese Government successfully held the “International Workshop on Natural Diuster Management”. In natural diuster reduction, we have also received extensive support and help from the international community. Here I would like toexpress our heartfelt gratltude. In our future work, we will fully implement “The National Natural Disaster Reduction Plan” and enhance comprehensive capacity in natural disaster reduction. We will actively take part in international cooperation in natural d i s t e r reduction and make due contributions to international natural disaster reduction. Mr. Chdrmm, With the approaching of the 21 st century. we are still confronted with a very sever natural IDNDR achievements, it is necessary for the international disaster situation. Based on the community to make more concerted efforts to mitigate natural disasters For this purpose, I would like to make the following proposals: Retaining the existing UN institutions for natural disaster reduction 50 as to continuously I am confident that this Forum will surely lay a solid foundation for the cause of 1. promote and coordinate international actions on natural disaster reduction. 2. Formulating an information-sharing plan For the international disaster reduction, fully utilizing science and technology to set up a global information network of natural disaster reduction and gradually realizing the shanng of information in the field. 3. Establishing “the UN Funds for tnternatioval Natural Disaster Reduction” aiming at supporting major disaster reduction projects and actions, education and training programs. Meanwhile, the developxi countries should take effective measures to increase assistance to the developing countries in natural disaster reduction, particularly help the developing countries improve their capacity in natural disaster reduction. 4. Establishing monitoring and early warning systems for major natural disasters worldwide to enhance the mankind’s capacity in responding to these disasters. 5. Establishing an effective mechanism For the liaison and coordination of experts special& in natural disaster reduction so a to promote exchanges and cooperation among them. Mr Chairman, this Forum is a significant event in IDNDRin reviewing the past and looking to the future. international natural disaster reduction in the coming century. Finally 1 wish the Forum a full success. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. FISCHEL, VlCE PRESIDENT OF COSTA RICAAND CHAlR OF H.E. A. THE IDNDR MEETING FOR THE AMERICAS [Translated from Spanish] Ladies and Gentlemen, It is for me a great honor to participate, as representative of the Latin American and the Caribbean nations, in the closing event of the International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction. It is alx, a true pleasure to be in a country as exceptional as Switzerland always generous, which has opened up its hospitality to us. We are here to analyze the achievements OF one of the most important platforms OF interaction for prevention of natural disnstersat the regional and international level. Thanks to this Decade, the international community today is aware of the need for an approach based on medium and long term development. as well as the establishment of a prevention culture in the social sphere. The Decade has contributed to the universal legitimization of this issue, to the development of a technologid and political framework and to the opening up of regional Ford among partners and nations. And above all, it has highlighted the need for the promotion of integrated multi-sectoral strategies for the reduction of disasters, in a framework OF national development plans, as a fundamental part of the process to improve the life standards of our people. For this reasons, we hope that, with the assistance of all parties present, the United Nations system shall continue to play the role of international coordinator for prevention, mitigation and preparedness face with all types OF disasters and this beyond the Decade which is coming to an end in order to ensure the permanency ofthe results that have been achieved and to extend the possibilities of a positive impact. We stress the need to benefit from the achievements. We have thus respecthlly appealed to the United Nations system to maintain its leadership role in this area. We want to continue to support the necessary substantial changes in the behavior of the citizens; to incorporate an integral perspective of risk management and prevention in the development plans of our countries; the socjal appropriation of information in order to lead to concrete decisions and actions. Under this leadership we hope to achieve further knowledge on natural phenomena and scenarios on which impact may be achieved, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is absolutely necessary to continue dong the path already embarked upon 50 that the Decade may overcome the causes, which generate vulnerability and risks, especially for those who live in poverty still today. We must continue to promote Imd use planning; we have to avoid the repetition of mistakes; we need to convince people not only of soda1 but also economic advantges of preventive measures. Faced with the achievements made by the Decade, internationally and in pdrtlculdr in the Latin American and Canbbean region, we express our great interest to keep alive the working platform established during these past years. Costa Ria is firmly convinced in appeals to the United Nations system to analyze the possibility of keeping open the Regional office for Latin America and the Cnnbbean with the view to giving continuity to prevention, mitigation anci preparedness projects Of course the agenda is broad and ambitious. But even higher are our aspirations to achieve worthy and secure live For all of our people. Certajnfy, there will be unavoidable responsibilities within each and every one of our countries. We trust that in the United Nations system we can keep alive our hopes. Thank you. to the Secretand lor the ISDR Moderator: Rapponteuc Speakem Narlons Respondent: Cantent: The coping studies are awilable upon requfsl Mr. D. Warner, Deputy Director fw the Exterrml Relations and Special Programs. The Graduate Institute of International Studies. and Coordinator of the Coping study Propct Mr. R. Slooff, Consultant, IDNDRSecretariat + Prof. W.J.R Alexinder, Department ofcivil Engineering, University of Pretoria. South Africa. and Member of the United Nations Scientific and Technical Committee (STC) on Naturd Disaster &duction "Public Perception. Economic Aywds and Edrrculron N e d - An African Perspective" + Prof. Dr. H.E.M Minor, Direclor, Laboratory of Hydrology and Glaciology of the Swiss Federal Institute ofTechnolom, Zurich, Switzerland: "Dwzster Resilient infrastructure" + Prof. S. Herath, International Center for Disaster-Mitigdtion Enginering (INCEDE), Inslitute of industrial Science, UniversiQ ulTokyoand Un&ci University (UNUI: "Te&nology for Diwster Redutlim" Prof. Dr. 0. Renii. Center of Technology Assessment in kden, Wurttemberg. Stuttgart. Germany Having a better undeistanding ofwhat might be disaster risk in the century constitutes a crucial element for formulating a credible future approach to disaster reduction. To thi5 cnd, the Graduate Institute of International Studies and 2 1 st its Program for the Study d International Organization(s) (PSIO) has k e n mandated by the IDNDRSecretariat to orgalizf and coordinate three coping studies under the overall theme of "Risk and k i e r y " in cotlaboratioir with renowned international institutions active in the field of disastels. The aim of these studies is to identify remaining Saps in disaster reduction, formulate strategic approaches to meet the requirements for improvement, and identify research needs in relation to the possible disasters ofthe twenty-first century. "Public Perception, Economic Aspects and Education N e e d s , An African Perspective" Prof Alexander. Depr of Civil Engineenny, Uniwrsirrj of Prctona, South Africa Within the mcio-economic context ofdisastervulnerabiliw in the Afrian region, the study seeks to identify the prime causes for poverty - related high level5 of disastervulnerability, both inside and from outside the conthent. It ariatyscs criticalty iile highly response orielNed external aid Africa receives tc reduce disaster impacts and concludes that without greater attention horn policy - makers and more support from donor agenc.ies for antic.ipdtory f preventive approaches vulnerabiliry in d k t e r reduction. many African countries will not be able 10 w e ham the poverty - - environmental cie.qnadatml- pwerty deadlock. “Disaster Resilient Infrastructure” Labordory of Hydrology and Glaciology of the Su~ir, Fzderal Iristitufc of Tecknulogy. Zurich, Switzerland exanines the state - of - the . art in infr?e.ttucture design and conshction to reduce physical disaster impacts frmn a number of natural hnurds: wind laads. snow avalanches. ldls, landslides, impulse waves, earthquakes. forest tires and floods This study ice avalanches, rock It advocates a more exrensive use of these technologies. in p.vtiuuar in new development of wherries, rerettlemmts. tranyrortation inbashuctures. etc. it concludes that the promotion of dimster reduction thrwgh disaslrr resilient infrastructures is best secured through regional planning. for Dimtt’r Mitfgation M cfamagc from such incentives to risk avoidance Lwlraviour. He propoxcl to “ Technology for Disaster Reduction” IUNUI ut cropration with the lnlernnlional Centrr Uwikd Nations Il~nwsitq [ INCE D E I, U AILF&~ of To& Engineering ~ This study emphasizes the importance of disaster reduc.tion technology in all phases ofa disaster cycle mitigation, preparedness, response, recovery and reconstrudion. The degree of mitigation Ffbrts made through disaster reduction technologierand land use planning is crucial turn into a in determinmg whether a given natural hazard would disterand, if FO. its magnitude. It provides an impressive overview of such technologies such as remote sening and Seographic information systems, global positioning systems, telecommunication technologics, disaster information systems. etc. The study also stresses that In adoptiqq such technologies. deciuon makers should be m~icu~ oftheir sustaidility in long-term planning and of the need fur increasm d i t e r mitigation capacity. presented me subject UI handling natural disasters from a novel risk assessment and evaluation perspective which distinguishes between managing disaster risk itself. addressing unccrtainty abut risks, and reducing the wlnera!3ility He proposed to adopt three broad classes of management strategies for coping with natural disaster that take Hie different degrees of probabilities ot W d s and their potential lor darnase. into account Political actions required to apply the three types dmnnagement include Respondent. Mr Renn humankind will deal wirh their reducriO11. risk5 the developnent of “benign” technologies. the establishment of “self-learning- opnizatmsand the linking of economic establish an International Panel on Risk A m m t and Management. Conclusions: On the one hand, increasing environmental degradation. urbanization and industrialmtion will render naturnl disas~ers increasingly important and, hence, the need to p r w On the other, progress k i r r g made with for sustainable development plicies more lurcefully. technology development and avdlability will d m g e rhe nature oFdiusters as well as the manner in w41kh EDUCATING FUTURE GENERATIONS Mrs. K. White, President of Black R Whilc Communications l n ~ , Executive Rapporteur: Task Manager. UNESCO in collaboration with the Lmadian IDNDR Cwrdination Committee Moderator: Director of Risk & Scrjety Initiative. Board Member of Canadian IDNDR Coordtnation Comrnitte Mr. I. Bruce. Canadian Climate Program and former Chair ofthe United Nations Scieniltic and Technical Committee (STC) on Natural Disaster kduction Speaken: Mrs. K. White,: "Education for the Future: The Ial Forum of NCOS for Disaster Reduction (GFNDR) was created after the Yokohama odentatim and origins with varied interests. summarized “Community - based Msaster heparrdness Programmes in the Intenrational Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC)”: Ms. Galperin public education as well as community the main objectives of these IFRC programmes as preparedness to response to cope better with the impact d disasters; prediction and prevention and disaster mitigation. Implementation of these programmes includes disaster awareness and organization and community rnicroprojects. When planning interventions, prioritimtion is h i s d IMWCI, geographical locition, vulnerable groups and nature of activities; co-qxration with governmenb, NGO’s and the where possible, made on the private s t o r ; aid integration d preparedness into problems ot everyday nature. Conclusions and Recommendations: 4 + + 4 Local communities should be empowered to plan and initiate their own development programmes, including mitigation of disasters with, for instance, devolution of power to rural committees through legislation. The IDNDR Secretariat or the successor organization should broaden its contacts and actiilties to deal not only with governments and specialists, but all stakeholders at all levels. Co-operation between NGO’s and governments is necessary and should be encouraged to enhance the value of data and information exchange. Community Representatives should be consulted at dl times in disaster planning as their pamupation in decision makmg is irnperatke to enable successful community based disaster reduction NETWORKS AND PARTNERSHIPS Moderator: Rappotteur: Speakers: Content: Mrs. L. Benazza, Deputy Director, Ministry of Scientific and Technical International Affairs, Algeria, and President, Algerian National Committee for the IDNDR Prof. Nyambok, University of Nairobi and Member of the United Nations Scientific and Technical Committee {STC) on Natural Disaster Reduction 1. + Prof. I. Davis, Chairman, Applications and Implementation Working Group, UK National Coordination Committee for the IDNDR: “Audit of the UK Activity” 4 Mr. E. Picado, the Central American Community Network for Risk Management, Nicaragua: “For 0 Safer and more Digniiied Community with the Participation of Everyone” 4 Mr. F. Parsiudeh, Director of Public Education Department, lnternatiornl Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES): “Earthqt~k Public Education in Iran” “Audit of the UK Activity”: Prof. Davis explained that the purpose ofthe U.K. audit is to review the effectiveness of the report focuses on the developing countries rather than Britain and involved quantitative and qualitative appraisals of the effectiveness and performance of policies, projects and activities. The overall outcome of the audit was quite positive in concluding that the IDNDR is an important initiative and should continue into the next millennium. While recognizing the major achievements of the IDNDR including building multi and interdisciplinary networks at both local and international levels, developing integrated research, enabling organization of conferences and publication of books and promoting the role of the private sector in risk reduction, the audit points out weaknesses in communication to capture the interest of the public (due in part to an acronym title which has not k e n easily recognizable), and to inspire the attention and concern of the media, industry, commerce and to some extent the Governments. “For a safer and more dignified community with the participation of Everyone”: Mr. Picado explained that his organization, LaRed (based in Nicaragua) involves several Latin America countries, in particular national institutions, centers and NCOs. It focuses its activities on alleviating extreme poverty. To this end, the partidparion of lml communities in disaster reduction is basic and relevant authorities should promote community networks and empower communities 50 that the latter can contribute to their own safety through proactive, sensible and up-to-date disaster reduction measures. Central America efforts in this field have been instrumental in developing policies, influencing decision making process, promoting strategic planning and defining appropriate land use policies. However communities could be even more involved in this process, especially those most vulnerable to natural and man-induced haurds. To this end, it is clucial that communities receive relevant education and training as it is an important aspect of disaster reduction efforts. Hurricanes, like Mitch, have made communities more aware of their vulnerability and highlighted the limitations in the assistance national governments can Drovide thus reflecting the increased need for communities UK efforts during the IDNDR The to work with one another. Prevention and raising awareness ofdisasters are vital and communities could benefit mutually from their experiences and success stories. “Earthquake Public Education in Iran”. Mr. Parsizadeh pointed out that Iran has been known as one of the most active earthquake countries. That is why Iran has emphasized public education as a tool to increase awareness on seismic activities and their related hazards. The education programme which rnainiy targets children and adolexenrs is geared towards sensitizing the public on the necessary precautions to be taken in order to ensure safety of their homes, families and community. Additionally, in order to k suitable for various community groups. tt7e programme takes into consideration the role ofgender, age, education level, and socic-cultural background of the targeted community. Lastly, the media plays an important role in the programme, Conclusions and Recommendations: + + + alleviating poverty is of paramount importance for the reduction of natural disasters and should be given concerted efforts globally structured education programme for various groups in society should involve all levels of society partnerships should be enhanced to improve sharing of knowledge, exchange of experiences and international cooperation EARLY WARN1 NG Moderator: Rapporteur. Prof. J. Zschau, Director, Division of Solid Earth Physics and Disaster Research, GeoForschungs Zentrum (CFZ), Potsdm, Germany Prof. 1. Nyambok, University of Nairobi and Member of the United Nations Scientific and Technical Committee (STC) on Natural Disaster Reduction + Dr. I. Obrusnik, Chairman, Czech Republic IDNDR National Cornminee. “Integration of Warning and Forecasting Sewrses” + Mr. F. Helloco, Engineer, M e t b France: “Early Warning for Flash Ffoods in France recent advanccs” Prof. Shi Pei-jun, Chinese National Committee for IDNDR (CNCIDNDN. “98’ Flood D~saster IM China” Speakers: Content: “Integration of Warnlng and Forecasting Services“: Dr. Obrusnik gave a description of the practical applications of earty warning in the Czech Republic. Integrated services have been used to convey information regarding impending hydrometeorological events and hazards. Precipitation-runoff models have become increasingty important. A structured flow chart showing how flood forecasting is practiced in the Czech Republic was presented. “Early Warning for Hash floods in France: recent advances”. Mr. Helloco presented the scope of Met& France’s operations, incorporating 53 different announcing departments. Most of France’s territory is covered with a radar network which is used to provide hydrological models and comparative analyses with other data-sets. Real-time experiments associating radar-rainfall w t h runoff models have provided encouraging results in the prediction of flash floods. However, further verification and validation of these results are still necessary to test the sensitivity of the experiments and to improve the alert procedures in the early warning programme. Disaster in China”: Prof. $hi Pei-jun presented statistics on p t and “98’ Flood present precipitation leveks and on fatalities and economics loss related to Yangze River floods. Co-ordinated efbrk were made to bring the floods under control and to initiate a process of recovery and rehabilitation, using units of the Chinese military establishment and civil society to evacuate and relocate affected people. provide food, cloth and medical services, md to organize and mobilize relief donations. This experience brought into focus the need for a sound co-ordination mechanism, an enhanced role of local governments and the empowerment of local communities regarding natural disaster related to floods. Conclusions and Recommendations: using early warning as a means of empowering communities threatened by impending disasters warning tlas to be given in good time, be precise and prompt, and should convey reliable + in for mat ion + education, telecommunication systems, multi-disciplinary approaches and networking with other organiutions must be strengthened locally and regionally in order to enhance early warning efforts Rapporteur: Speakers: “Ttwhing Seamic Protectiun Skiffs at INTEGRATED RISK MANAGEMENT Mr. C. Deneufbourg, Secretary General, French National Committee for the Moderator: IDNDR Prof. 1. Nyambok. University of Nairobi and Member of the United Nations Scientific and Technical Committee (STC) on Natural Disaster Reduction Mr. B. Koffi, Government of a t e d’lvoire “The Prutectiorz o/ Natural Resources in + Ldnka: the C6te d’lvoire“ + Dr. A. Mikayelyan, Chief Specialist, Northern Department of the National Survey For Seismic Protection of Armenia: Schuols of Armenia” + Mr. P. Patakndi, Team Leader, Team for Disaster Prevention and Sustainable Development (Team DPSD), Sri Chmges” “Extreme Weather Events due to Climatic Contew. “Teaching ”The Protection of Natural Resources in the CBte d’ivolre”. Mr. Koffi described the geo-ecological setting of C6te d’lvoire and its vaned physiography. Between 1955 and 1993, forests have k e n disappearing due mostly to bushfires aggravated by environmental degradation. The CBte d’lvoire is therefore under pressure co find sustdned ways of protecting its natural resources against disaters changes are mainly Seismic Protection SUIs at Schools of Armenia”: Dr. Mikayelyan explained that in Armenia, teaching of seismic protection is an essential aspect in the reduction of social and economic disruptions caused by earthquakes. Analysis of the 1988 Spitak earthquake revealed lack of adequate protection procedures especially for children. The Northern Department of the Narional Survey for Protection with financial support from UNICEF started a training programme designed for children and schools to be incorporated in sd-rool curricula This initiative is a major step towards implementing a national programme for the prevention ofpotential damages through seismic events in Armenia “Extreme Weather Events due to U m d c Changes”: Mr. Patabendi explained that R o d s are the number one disaster in Sri Lank. Climatic influenced by depressions in the Bay of Bengal and inter-monsoon rains and are often associated with typhoons and cyclones producing Roocis near the coasts leading to landslides. Concluslons and Recommendations: 4 vulnerability, and in particular poverty, should be considered as a key factor in assessing environmental risks, especially in marginal areas integrated applications of xience and technology should be part of preventive measures + education is a prerequisite to building a culture of prevention 4 REGIONAL , APPR .OA LC NETWORK ING, S ;YN IE Moderator: Task Manager: IDNDR Secretariat Mr. J.-P. Massue, Executive Secretary of the EUR-OPA Major Hazards Agreements, Council of Europe Ms. H. Molin-Valctes, Head oF#e IDNDROffice in Costa Rim Rappotteurt Speakers: COnteM + Ms. A. Fischel, Vice President of the Republic of Costa Ria: "Regional dimensions oftiisnster reduction in Latin Amwica and the Caribbean" (he San jose Declaration, June 1 9 9 3 + Dr. I. Obrusnik, Czech Hydrometeorological Ins€itute: "Cooperation fur the Disastevs in the Central Eurapefln Region" (the Prague Declaration on Disaster Reduction, June 1998) + H.E. K. Garnjana-Coonchorn, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, to the United Nations: "The Ecunulnic and Social Aspecfs 01 Disaster Reduction in Asia" (kngkok Declaration in Diuster Reduction, Prevention of Permanent Mission of Thailand 4 February 1999) Mr. S. Balassanian, President, Nation Survey for Seismic Protection of Armenia: "Future prohlems of disdster reduction in the CtS region" (Yerwan Declaration + on IDNDR in the CIS Countries, September 1%) Mr. 5-m Nicol& Santamm'a, Director General, Civil Protection, Spain: "Common the Meditewanean Region" (Valencia Declaration on problems and future needs in Disaster Reduction, May 1999) + Mr. W. Hooke, Chair, Subcommittee for Natural Disaster Reduction, Washington D.C., USA: "The United States approach to Disaster Reduction" The session reviewed ten years of achievements in disaster reduction at the regional level, based on the official declarations adopted at the IDNDR Jkgional Meetings organized within the framework ofthe closing events of the Decade. It also formulated priority recommendations for future actions and provided specific examples of successful strategies for education and nattioml disaster mitigation policy programmes for disaster reduction. During this decade several major natural hazards have transformed into major costing billions of dollars in economic losses and enormous psyd-ro- disnsters social distress. While improved early warning mechanisms and organization for effective evacuation and response saved hundred thousands of lives, poverty, accelerated urbanization (mega-cities) , environmental degradation a d lack of devetopment remain the main causes of natural disasters. When reducing vulnerability and risks associated to future disasters, should be taken into account the important consequences of disasters including air and water pollution, mass movement of people, migration and technological disasters. It should be noted that reconstruction processes reprent agood opportunity for implementing the necessluy disaster reduction measures and policies. The IDNDR impetuous as a stimulus for partnerships and improvement in public awareness and political sensitiveness proved very useful in this respect. Regarding future arrangements the successor ofthe IDNDR the Government of Costa Rica urged the United for Nations to maintain the regional Unit br Disaster Reduction for Latin America and the Cartibean as a platform for information exchange, public awareness and coordination and offered to continue hostina this entitv Conclusions and Recommendations: While each region and each country has specific characteristics and needs, they do share common concerns on major issues which were identified as priorities for future actions. These were: + + + + 4 + + Public awareness and sensitizing, involving mass media, to influence behavior towards a culture of disaster prevention. Dissemination of existing and future information using new technologies to enhance disaster reduction Capacity building as agenerd priority and more specifically education at all levels including primary and secondary xhool curricula, university degrees, adult training, formal and non- formal education of groups with special needs. Strengthening and coordination of regional and international cooperation for disaster reduction within sustainable development as well as environmental and humanitarian assistance agendas. Improvement OF national institutional and legal frameworks for disdster prevention policies by enhancing national capacities, human resources and equipment, especially for developing countries. Community empowerment and involvement, not only for response to disasters, but also for policy development towards risk reduction Support for the use of new technologies and information tools for disaster reduction Importance of the specific role of the private sector and insurance for diuster reduction. Inclusion of technological dimtea in disaster reduction national and international mandates. Esrablishment of regional centers or structures to act as advocacy and public awareness platbrms for d i t e r reduction promoting annual or regular regional meetings and traning. Sustained improvement of early warning systems and mechanisms. Need for a follow-up mechanism to IDNDRof a multi-disciplinary and inter-agency character within the UN system to continue the promotion of disaster reduction on a cross x t o r a l basis. El Niiio, La Niiia events: the 1997/1998 Scientific and Technical Retrospective” 4 Mr. M. Clank, Environmental and Societal Impacts Group, National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado: “El Nitiu, and approaches towards Len tury” Niiia sociu econornic impacts the reduction af their adverse efiects on societies in the twenty-fivst + Mr. F. Paliz, Director General, Division of External Affairs, Foreign Ministry, CLIMATIC VARIABILITIES AND EXTREMES: EL NINO, LA NINA Task Manager: United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) Nairobi, Kenya Mr. A. Alusn, UNEP Atmosphere Programme 5. R Jegillos, Director for Asia, Asia-Pacific Disaster Management Centre, Moderator: Rapporkur: NiKo Environmental Emergencies Through Early-Warning and Preparedness: the Case of the El Southern Oscillafions (ENSOI” Mr. Makati City, Philippines + Mr. A. A1us.a: Presentation of the UNFlP Funded Project on “Reducing + Mr. B. Kinninmonth, WMO Consultant: “Detection, Moniton’ng and Forecasting of Speakers: content: Quito, Ecuador: “The UN Inter-Agency Tusk Force achievements on Ef Niiio” The by a La p h e , was amongst the El Niiio event, followed NiAa strongest in recorded history. It has, thus, created a high level ofawxeness, in all domains, about such climaticvariabilities and extremes and their relation to natural disasters, environment and sustainable development. This session reviewed the current state of understanding of climate variabilities and extremes with regard to El NiAo and Id Niiia. 197/98 “Reducing envlronmental emergencies through early warning and NCAR the United Nations University and IDNDR The main purpose of preparedness: the tase of El Nino Southern OscWon” is a project involving 15 countriesmd implemented jointly by UNEP, the United Nations Foundation, WMO, this project is to enhance the understanding of issues at stake by: + reviewing the current situation with regard to global, regional and national predictions as well as early warning and preparedness systems and assessing how these maybe improved. + assessing the vulnerability of socio-economic sectors and the information needs for decision-makers in these sectors. The review and assessment will be carried out through studies at global, regional and national levels. The scientific retrospective of the 1997- 1998 El NIno event conducted by WMO consists of a description of activities pertaining to global monitoring, and consolidation of information on El Nino 1997 - ;Issessment, 1 998 impacts. It showed that El Nino 1997- 1998 had severe global impact on: + People (Mortality: 24.000 persons; morbidity: 533.M30 persons; affected : 1 1 1 Mio persons) Material (US 34 billion in losses) + Land (56 million acres affected) These impacts could be reduced by improving preparedness, early warning, international and national inter-agency cooperation, technology transfer and and technical capacity building. More specifically, there is a need for k t t e r coping strategies including the strengthening of global climate infrastructure as well as the coordination and integration of climate information. prediction, preparedness, early warning and respnse. Studies conducted by the National Center for Atrnosphedc Research, USA (NCAR) highlighted that public awareness on El Nino is quite high and leads to interesting s i a l responses which need, however, to be adjusted. In this regard, the following remarks should be considered: 4 + El Nino does not represent unusual behavior of the global climate 4 El Nino is part of a cycle + Every weather anomaly throughout the world that occurs during an El Nino year is not necessarily caused by that El Nino El Nino has a positive side well There will continue to k surprises associated with further El Nino events + The impact of global warming on El Nino is not yet known, speculation notwithstanding + Forecasting El Nino is different than Forecasting the impacts of El Nino Scientists do not agree on the list of the El Nino years + Forecasting El Nino’s onset does not tell us about its magnitude, duration, or impacts. 4 4 Progress in monitoring El Nino is not matched by progress in forecasting fa) as an event, and (b) as a process 4 4 El Nino has to Faces: Lessons leaned are not conclusive in terms of identifying characteristics md impacts of El Nino El Nino Information dissemination through media and web sites requires improvement: the media do not have a neutral interest in reporting El Nino and a pretty web site does not an El Nino expert make! “Buyer Beware”. The United Nations General Assembly endorsed a multi-disciplinary and coordinated approach to the phenomenon of El Nino by adopting the resolution 52/200 within the framework of IDNDR This resolcltton calls for enhanced international cooperation to reduce El Nino impacts. Asa result, an interagency task force on El Nino was established. In 1998, the Government of Ecuador and the United Nations orgiuGzed jointly the First Intergovernmental Reunion of Experts on El Nino in Guayaquil, Ecuador where was adopted the Guayaquil Declaration proposing the establishment of an international center of the study of El Nino in Ecuador. Since then, the international community has relentlessly contributed to a ktter understanding of the El Nino phenomenon. Conclusions and Recommendations: 4 4 A key aspect For the reduction of the impacts of El Nino is to improve information content and dissemination. The United Nations system has to remajn the platform for the strengthening of international cooperation to reduce the impacts of the El Nino phenomenon while the international community should provide its technical and financial support in order to put into practice the mandates of the United Nations in this respect. Task Manager: United Nations Scientific and Technd Committee (STC) on Natural Disaster Reduction STC, Canada: “Hydrology, CIirnatology and the future” EMERCOM, Russia: “Issues ofa technogenic aud Tecfinological + Mr. P. Recalde, World Food Programme (WFP): “Increasing Food Secun’fy fhrough DISASTERS OF THE FUTURE Task Manager: United Nations Scientific and Technical Cornmitee (STC) on Natural Disaster Mr. Reduction R Hamilton, Chair of the STC Mr. J.-J. Wagner, Vice Chair ofthe STC + J. + Mr. Mr. Bruce, former Chair, M. Perlo Cohen, Member of the STC, Mexico: “The Slate, the Citizen and the Scienfists” + Mr. Y. Brazhnikov, Nature“ Moderator. Rapporteur: Speakers: Content. VulneraGilityAnalgsis Mapping” The objective of the session was to provide information on projections and expectations of experts with regard to natural hazards of the 21 st century and to our capacities to reduce their expected impact through improvement of global mitigation. The trend showing a yearly increase of the number of disasters is not going to decay despite the incre& mitigation actions undertaken during the IDNDR; this is mainly due to a tremendous growth of the world population and its greater exposure to natural hazards. An aggravating factor is climate changes. which give rise to more extreme natural events. Unless countries, whatever their economic status, integrate mitigation (prevention and preparedness) strategies into a sustajnable development, the present situation CUI only wown in the future. UN conventions and agreements such as the Agenda 2 1, a comprehensive sustainable development action blueprint, can be appropriately used to reduce disaster losses and especially the ones which maybe associated with consequences of cllmate variations or changes. Actions in the framework of convention like the ones on biological diversity or on desertification contribute to the harmonious equilibrium in nature and therefore limit degradations which favor greenhouse effects and consequently reinforce climate changes with all their consequences. It was suggested that a post decade task force should not only include UN Agencies but also NGOs and have good national liaison. Moreover, experts on climate changes should be part of this team. Natural disaster management wtthin the framework of globalization in a rapidfy changing world has positive and negative aspect.% easy access to the tremendous communication tools allows people to follow disasters around the planet in near real time, thus enhancing world wide awareness for mitigation, but leads also to a saturation of disaster pictures which become common matters in the eyes of the public. Important natural phenomena, such as Mitch, are transnational and could be, ideally, served by global strategies. Unfortunately globalization of capital flow tends to avoid endangered areas, especially when decision centers are located elsewhere. Global coalitions like IDNR are positive tools that should be developed in appropriate forms for the future. The World Bank and the reinsurance companies have also started initiatives along those lines. A GloM perspective should include loul coalitions which are directly in touch with communities. There is a growing interaction between natural, environmental and technologid hazards. The vulnerability of the society at large to the result of this interaction could be reduced by improved fcmsasting as well as improved detection ofchain of risks for better safety. In this respect, the IDNDRsuccessor should take into account a multi risk management approach, Entities such & EMERCOM are ready to support this approach with the view to improve disaster reduction strategies for the future. Wlth regard to food security, global vulnerability assessment but also its monitoring are of paramount importance to efficiently solve situations, which could degrade into famine. An appropriate tool for this undertaking is the GIS (Geographical Information Systems) with a broad range of data such as rain ktween production centers and road network, and also forecast, distances human factors like women invotvement in the Iocal society. Used with g d indicators and reliable methodologies, the vuherability analysis mapping provides decision-makers with efficient management tools to reduce the vulnerability of the population with an early response. Conclusions and Recommendations: Although risks are on the rise, lessons learnt through IDNDR and the gtohl awareness it created showed that there is no such thing as fatality in natural dissters. Therefore, actors at all tevels should be pro-active in incorporating mitigation md reduction of impacts of hazards in the daily Me and sustdinable development undertakings. Task manager: United Nations Scientific and Technical Committee (STC) on Natural Disaster Reduction Mr. R Mountah, Director, Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), tRneva Mr. R Hamilton, Rapporteur General of the Programme Forum Rapporteur General and Special Rapporteurs General Conclusions and Recommendations by the Rapporteur General of the Programme be Moderntor. Rapporteur: Speakers: iorum: Poverty: The people that are most vulnerable to natural disasters are the poor, who have very limited resources for avoiding losses. Environmental degradation resulting from poverty exacerbates disaster impacts. Without greater attention From policy makers and more support from donor agencies for disaster prevention action, many developing countries, particularly in Alika, will not be able to escape From this situation. Innovative approaches are needed; emphasis should k given to the programmes to promote community-bmsi approaches. and Megacities and urban areas: Concentrations of population En major urban centres (megacities), many OF which are located in hazard-prone areas and in developing countries, are highly vulnerable to natural and technological hazards due to dependence on complex infrastructures occupation of margin4 iand. Greater attention should be given to developing resilient and redundant infratructures through regional and land-use planning. Communities: Most disaster prevention and mitigation actions require community acceptance on a credible nssessment of and initiative, which must risks and realistic estimates of based cats and benefits. Comrnunitks are generally knowledgeable about fhejr own environments and coping mechanisms, and often of ways to reduce vulnerabilities. Community leadership also enhances independence and self-reliance. National, regional and international efforts towards disaster prevention and mitigation are essential, but should k seen as supportive of community- based actions. Awareness: Public awareness of natural hazards and risks, the driving force for prevention action, should be solidly grounded in the best dentitic and technological information and methodology. The IDNDR has promoted this god and is seen .F, a key factor in increasing political sensitivities towards the need for disaster reduction measures and policies. Warninp: Warnings for some types of hazards have saved many lives and are steadily is a major achievement during recent years. This has k e n made possible by improving, which improvements in monitoring, analytical, and communications systems. Nevertheless, further advances are possible and should be pursued. Warnings can be useci to avoid disasters rather than just respond to them. Special attention should be given to delivering the right message to the right place at the right time. Information: Advances in information technology in recent years now provide enormous remurces for decision makers. However, efforts are needed to distill this information into products that are tailored for the specific needs and delivered in a timely manner. Advances in communications technology make possible integration of real-time and archival data for emergency situations. Education and training: Education and training for disaster reduction is a key, cross-cutting issue that must be an integral part of all programs. Creative use of films and videos, as well as of modern dissemination means, can be especially effective. Information must be seen as authoritative and credible, which can be achieved by linking experts with community leaders. Education resources provided by regional and international organisations, including N O S , can be particularty helpful. Partnerships: Partnerships involving public and private organisations can be F;lrticularly e k t i i e in linking stakeholders and implementing plans. The private sector may be able to promote mitigation by providing incentives, for example, by ensuring compliance to building codes that would reduce insurance premiums as a condition for coverage. Risk management: Risk management should be better integrated into overall developmental and environmental planning. Cost effectiveness of proposed action is an essential consideration. Post-disaster recovery and reconstruction provide the opportunity and resources to implement natural disaster reduction as an essential element of sustainable development. Improvements have k e n made in recent years in risk assessment and loss estimation methodology. Health: Natural disasters require dose collaboration between scientists and deckion-makers to assure that authoritative information on potential or actual health problems is communicated. It is often difficult to achieve this goal in the face of uncertain and/or sustained situations. Effects of climate Variability on heafth are of growing interest. such as drought, heavy rainfall with floods and landslides, and Climate variability: The successful prediction OF the El Nino phenomena during 1997-98 signalled an improving capability for forecasting climate variability. As climate variation affects the Occurrence of natural hazards, tropical cyclones, this development carries great implications for natural disaster reduction. In advance of El Nino, some communities took preventive action that signifimtly reduced potential impacts. Environment and ecosystems: Natural hazards impact the environment md environmental degradation can exacerbate disasters. Small Island States and mountain communities can be especiallywlnerable. Hazard and risk assessmena should be improved to guide prevention and mitigation measures, for protecting the environment. Research: Substantive progress has k e n achieved in understanding the cause and effects of natural hazards. Nevertheless, further efforts are needed, especially with respect to risk assessment and warnings. Multi-disciplinary effortsare needed for many problems, especially to better integrate physical and social sciences. Building codes and practices: In many cases, rather simple modifications to current building practices could greatly improve performance under hazard-induced stress. Retrofitting existing structures, however, poses a challenge due to cost Emphasis is now being given to overall building performance, moving beyond the previous focus on life safety. Methods have been for better housing construction using I d materials, which should be more broadly advanced comrnuniated. Loss data Reliable data on natural disaster losses, other than human casualties. are very limited. Standard methods should be employed for collecting such data. National statistics on losses could be used to measure progress on disaster reduction. Framework: The inter national and regional framework provided by the IDNDR has greatly assisted many nations in focusing attention on the threat posed by natural hazards and the mean5 for mitigating their impacts. Of great importance, through the IDNDRmany high-level decision- makers have b m e aware ofthe vulnerabilities and the opportunities to reduce them. It is ofthe utmost importance that such a framework is provided in the future beyond the decade. STRATEGY: A SAFER WORLD in the 2 I st CENTURY Disaster and Risk Reduction lDNDR Programme Forum, Geneva, July 1999 be changed. h the words of the Secretay General, much cheaper ... Above all, let us not Forget that dx, INTRODUCTION While hazards are inevitable. and the eliminarion of all risk is impossible, there are many tcchnical measures, traditional practices, and public experience that c m reduce the extent or Hazards and emergency requirements are a part of severity of economic and social disnsters. living with nature. but human behaviour can “We must, aboveall, shift from a culture of reaction to a culture of prevention. Prevention is not only more humane than are; it is diwter prevention is a rriord imperative. no less than reducing the risks of war”. VISION To enable all communities to become resilient to the effects of natural, technological and environmental hazards, reducing the compound risks they pose to social and economic vulnerabilities within modern societies. To proceed from protection against hazards to the management of risk through the integration of risk prevention into sustainable development. 11. III. IV GOALS I. Increase public awareness of the risks that natural, technological and environmental hazards pose to modern societies. Obtain commitment by public authorities to reduce risks to people, their livelihoods. social and economic infrastructure, and environmental resources. Engage public participation at all levels of implementation to create disaster-resistant curnrnunities through increased partnership and expanded risk reduction networks at all levels. kcluce thc economic and social losses of disasters as measured. for example, by Gross Domestic Product. OBJECTIVES Stirnulate research and application, provide knowledge, convey experience, build capabilities and allocate necessary resources for reducing or preventing severe and recurrent impacts of hazards, b r those people most vulnerable. Increase opportunities for organizations and multi-disciplinary relationships to foster more scientific and technical contributions to the public decision-making process in matters of hazard, risk and diwiter prevention. Develop a more proactive interface between management of natural resources and risk 1 2. 3. reduction practices. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9 10. 11. 12. IMPLEMENTATlON Conduct a national audit or assessment process of existing functions necessary for a comprehenswe and integrated national strategy of hazard, risk and disaster prevention, projecteci over 5- 10 and 20 year time periods. Conduct dynamic risk analysis with specific consideration of demographics, urban growth, and the interaction or compound relationships between natural, technological and environmental factors Build, or where existing, strengthen regional/sub-regional. national and international approaches, and collaborative organizational arrangements that can increase hazard, risk and disaster prevention capabilities and actwities. Establish coordination mechanisms for greater coherence and improved effectiveness of combined hazard, risk and disaster prevention strategies at all levels of responsibility. Promote and encourage know-how transfer through partnership and among countries wirh pticular attention given in the transfer ofexperience amongst those countries most expxd to risks. Form aglohl community dedicated to making risk and disaster prevention a publicvalue. Link risk prevention and economic competitiveness issues to enhance opportunities for greater economic partnerships. Complete comprehenswe risk assessments and integrate them within development plans. Develop and apply risk reduction strategies and mitigation measures with supporting arrangements and resources for disaster prevention at all levels of activity. Identify and engage designated authorities, professionals drawn from the widest possible range of expertise, and community leaders to develop increased partnership activities. Establish risk monitoring capabilities, and early warning systems as integrated processes, with particular attention being given to emerging hmrds with global implications such as thase relared ro climate variation and change, at all levels of responsibility. Develop sustained programmes of public information and institutionalized educational components pertaining to hazards and their effects, risk management practices and disaster prevention activities, For all ages. Establish internationally and professionally agreed standards / methodologies for the analysis and expression of the socio-economic impacts of disasters on societies. Seek innovative funding mechanisms dedicated to sustained risk and diwter prevention activities. Establish national, regional/sub-regional and global information exchanges. facilities. or dedicated to hazard, risk and disaster prevention, linked by agreed communication websites standards and protocols to facilitate interchange. Link efforts of hazard, risk and disaster prevention more closely with the Agenda 21 implementation process for enhanced synergy with environmental and sustainable development issues Focus multi-ymr risk reduction strategies on urban concentration and mega-city environments. Institute comprchcnsive application of land-use planning and programmes in hazard prone- environments. Develop and apply standard forms of statistical recording of risk Factors, diuster occurrences and their consequences to enable more consistent comparisons. Undertake priodic reviews of accomplishments in haurd. risk and djuster reduction efforts at all levels of engagement and rez+ponsibility. of specific alternative funding and resource allocation modalitie5 that can Study feeasibility ensure continued commitment to sustained risk and disaster prevention strategies. RESPONSIBLE PARTIES Governments have the primary responsibility for protecting citizens from risks and disaster, however, local communities and elements of civil xxiety most threatened by haurds emerge as key initiators of important risk and disaster prevention actions. They must work through partnership, and toyether, receive necessary encouragement and support lo realize the vision of disaster resilience. Regional/sub-reynnal and international collaboration is essential, especidty with regard to the dissemination of experience and information. scientific and technical applications, continual advocacy and the coordination of strategies to assist in the development of national capabilities. The United Nations system has a special leadership role in global risk and disnster reduction by its universal charac-ter. interdisciplinary and multi-sectoral scope, and role as a forum for global dialogue. It should address global risk issues, ensure coherence among humanitarian aid, disaster prevention and development, and promote collaboration among countries. REVIEW The strategy. A Safer World in the 21st Cerltury: Risk and Disaster Reduction, should be closely monitored by the risk and disaster reduction communiry, and aglohl review of progress and accomplishments should be undertaken by all concerned parties within a period of heyears. International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction lDNDR International Programme Forum 5-9 July 1999 Thecknevahkndak C3nDisaskrReductton We, participants in the IDNDR International Programme Forum - Towards Partnerships for Disaster Reduction in the 21st Century, - recognise that the world is increasingly being threatened by large scale diMsters triggered by hazards, which will have long term negative social, economic, and environmental consequences on our societies and hamper our capacity to ensure sustainable development and investment, particularly in developing countries. We have to act decisively now, to guarantee a safer world For Future generations. We must build on progress achieved during the IDNDR, 50 that risk management and disaster reduction become essential elements of government policies. TheYokohama Strate= ( 1994) and the stratew"A Safer World in the 2 I st Century: Risk and Disaster Reduction" ( 19%)) chart the course. Political will is essential to ensure that appropriate policies and institutional arrangements foster a culture of prevention at all levels of our sucieties. We shall adopt and implement policy measures at the international, regional, sub-regional, national and local levels aimed at reducing thevulnerability of our societies to h t h natural and technological haurds through proactive rather than reactive approaches. These measures shall have as main objectives the establishment of hazard-resilient communities and the protection of people from the threat of disasters. They shall also contribute to safeguarding our natural and economic resources, and our social wellbeing and livelihoocls. Furthermore, scientific, social and economic research. and technological and planning applications will be required at all levels and from a wide range of disciplines in order to support risk manqement and effective reduction of our vulnerabilities. In this connection, there is need for increased information exchange, improved early warning capacities, technology transfer and technical co-operation among all countries, paying particular attention to the most vulnerable and affected. These last ten years have shown the multisectoral, interdisciplinary and cross-cutting nature of broad risk management and its contdbution to disaster reduction. Continued interaction and co-operation on the above basis, among all disciplines and institutions concerned, are considered essential to accomplish commoniy agreed objectives and priorities. This interaction shall be based on the strengthening of co- operation and partnerships engendered by the IDNDR Programme. We stress the irnprtance of developing and strengthening regional approaches dedicated to disaster reduction in order to take account of local specificity and needs. We emphhasise in this respect, the need to support institutional initiatives and mechanisms for strengthening regional. subregional national and local capabilities. coordination, and applied research. We recognise the particular need For establishing an institutional arrangement to coordinate disaster reduction in Africa, and in this regard, invite existing and evolving mechanisms for inter-regional co-operation to accord priority to these concerns. Appropriate financial resources will be needed to ensure the development and implementation of prevention and mitigation policies and programmes in all countries particularly developing countries. Innovative approaches should be explored including the Funding of international initiatives. However, Full use should be made of existing regional and national financial mechanisms involving those communities most directly exposed to risks. All bilateral and multilateral development assistance should include disaster reduction components. We recommend to the international community and to the United Nations that, lwed on the proven success of the functional responsibilities and organizational arrangements during the IDNDR, the international co-operative framework for disaster reduction be maintained and strengthened. This framework should ensure partnership and synera among all elements of risk management and disaster reduction, and promote a shift from a mentality of reaction to a culture of prevention. The growing threat of political, social and economic disruption caused by natural and technological disasters calls for bold action from member States of the United Nations in this regard. STATEMENT FROM THE WMO/UNESCO SUB-FORUM ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY IN SUPPORT OF NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTlON in which Kience and technology contribute to the nature afthe risk: (Geneva, 6-8 July 1999) One of the outstanding achievements of the International Decade for Natural Disnster Reduction (IDNDR) has been its major contribution to increased interaction and cooperation between the natural and social xience communities working in dister reduction and hence to enhanced application of science and technology to reducing the large and growing sou’al and economic cost of natural disasters around the world. Though science and technology have already contributed much to saving human life and reducing property loss and environmental damage from most forms of natural hazard of meteorological, hydrological, oceanographic and geological origin, their potenti1 contribution context of an integrated approach to natural disaster reduction which is the over the next decade is even greater. But only ifthey are systematically and Wiselyapplied within the broader social principal legacy and proudest achievement of the lDNDR in order to assist the global community to build most effectively on the foundation provided by the IDNDR, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), as the two principal United Nations (UN) agencies concerned with the scientific and technological aspects of disaster reduction, convened a “Sub-Forum on Science and Technology in Support of Natural Disaster Recluction” as a special contribution to the UN IDNDR Programme Forum 1 3 3 3 “Partnerships For a Safer World in the 2 1 st Century”. The Sub-Forum reviewed the various ways disaster reduction process including, in particular, through: aswsment of vulnerability and enhancement dmmmunity awareness + + operation of integrated warning systems; and preparedness and education programs. global strate./ In ib review, the Sub-Forum took s t d of recent progress and future prospects in each of these three aspects of the application of science and technology to reduction of the impacts of tropical cycfones, extra-tropical storms, storm surges, severe local storms and tornadoes, sand and dust storms, drought, extreme and persistent temperatures, fire weather, floods, landslides, avalanches, volcanoes, earthquakes and tsunamis. A synopsis of this review is contained in the Annex to this statement. The participants in the Sub-Forum, who came from both the natural and social sciences and with both research and operational bxkgounds in developing and developed countries were concerned that more could have been achieved during the “decade” 8 the channels of communication and mutual trust that have now been achieved muld have been established earlier. They were alw concerned at the substantial gap that still exists between the disaster reduction capabilities of the develo@ and developing countries. They believe, however, that the achievements of the past decade have provided a sound foundation on which to build an effective for natural disaster reduction in the 2 t st centuw. ofthe Major Achievements Many of the most significant achievements in natural disaster reduction during the 1990s were largely a result of science and technology. Accuracy and timeliness of early warnings for many natural hazards have been improved. The ability to provide forecast time and location of landfall of tropical cyclones has k e n improved by 24 hours so that the accuracy of the 24-hour forecast in 1990 has been increased in 1999 to 48 hours in advance. The warning time for tornadoes in 1W was around 8 0 r 9 minutes and this has nearly doubted to over 1 7 minutes by the end of the decade. During the “decade”, information and understanding on specific natural hazards such as earthquakes and cyclones has, along with increased confidence of design engineers and insurance corporations, permitted improvements in building codes and stmdards in many parts ofthe world. A related achievement has been the significant increase of available maps of risk for many countries based on scientific studies and analyses of the climatology of natural hazards. Perhaps the most visible achievement in the 1’990s has been the creation of new disaster management bodies at all levels of government that now include xientists and engineers involved in the study and prediction of natural hazards. One of the major meteorological concerns of the 1990s has related to the longer time scales associated with seasonal to interannual climate variability and human-induceci change While the capacity to forecast these changes is still limited, the implications for natural disaster reduction are extremely signifimt with just avery small improvement in forecast skill likely to lead to major benefits for communities and national economies. Another notable achievement of the decade has k e n the ability, through satellites, to detect, track and assess the intensity of tropical cyclones and major storm systems. It IS almost a certainty that all tropical cyclones can now be detectea at or before their development as a natural hazard. Significant improvements have been made during the decade in the global observation system of the World Weather Watch (WWW) and the Integrated Global Ocean Services System (IGOSS). For example, the polar and geostationary satellite systems have been enhanced and the experimental buoy network in the tropical Pacific Ocean has been made operational providing essential observations for early detection of intense El Niiio and subsequent La Nilia phenomena. This achievement permitted prediction of drought and above normal precipitation several months in advance in Eastern Africa, and prediction of heavy rain in California in the United States These predictions also led to specid preparedness actions resulting in significant reduction in the losses from the associated flooding. Overall, the achievements in scientific understanding md i t s application during the 1990s have provided significant increases in evacuation times, better building standards, and improved risk assessment. Vulnerability and Awareness The Sub-Forum agreed that vulnerability assessment and reduction should form an integral part of the follow-up to the IDNDR This should be achieved through use of advances in engineering as well as in the natural, social and human sciences. Awareness raising on all types of natural disasters forms an essential element in early warning systems, particularly also where warning periods are short. It encompasses the affected population as well as the political authorities concerned. Therefore, education and training of communities at large. the involvement of media and continuous interaction between scientists, sociologists, technologists and decjsion-makers and governmental authorities are indispensable vehicles for effective implementation. The partnership of scientific and technical practitioners with those working in social and humanitarian fields is essential notably in urban areas, involving the local population as well *tourists In developed countries, it has been clearly demonstrated in recent years that the vulnerability of Communities to natural hazards can be greatly reduced by the use of modern building standards in conjunction with risk zoning based on scientific and technical knowledge of the various hazards and their impact on the built environment. Indeed it is through such standards and risk zoning that much of the scientific and technical knowledge of the various hazard mitigation is applied in the community In the building and construction area these standards are being developed by the I n t e r n a t i i l Standards Organization (150). These standards have the potential to greatly reduce community vulnerability to a number of major hazards in the long term but this will require that the developmenr of These new international standards be given higher priority than the revision and upgrading of their individual national standards. A related, but separate need is the development of cost efficient means of reducing the vulnerability of existing buildings and infrastructure and the financing of activities. This is required to address the reduction of vulnerability in the short to medium term A high level of technical skills will be required to determine economic means of reducing the vulnerability, and high level of scientific and engineering expertise will be required b r the innovative methods of risk financing that will be needed to securitise the investment in reducing the vulnerability. Integrated Warning Systems Fatly warnings are an extremely important link in the chain of actions required to reduce the social and economic impact of natural hazards. Warnings of a natural hazard such as a flood delivered in a timely and clear manner to individuals or communities prepared to take action reduces the impact of the hazard. All sectors must be involved in the warning process and serve population needs, environment and other national resources. Effective early warnings require unrestricted access to data that is freely available for exchange and they must emanate from a single officially designated authority. Advances in science and technology during the last decade have demonstrated enhanced warning capabilities for many natural hazards in many parts of the world for example, warnings of drought have been issued several months in advance which proved of great value for alleviating me impacts of the drought and food supplies The forecast accuracy of cracks of tropical cyclones has shown significant improvement and average forecast lead times for tornadoes and flash Roods have been substantially increased which reduces the loss of life Provided adequate assistance is avalable, many opportunities now exist to transfer these warning capabilities to all areas affected by the natural hazard especially in developing countries during the next decade networks and radar, data processing capability and most importantly The warning process is underpinned internationally by the World Weather Watch and IGOSS, the Tsunami Warning System and associated research particularly the World Weather Research Program. At the national level this process includes local and regiomd observational systems such as coordinated hydro&ical it depends on well-trained meteorologists to prepare forecasts and warnings and interact with media and emergency management officials. heparedness and Educatlon A wide range of activities and bodies is encompassed by the terms “preparedness” and “education”. They extend from the grass roots to the governmental Level and involve individuals. families and communities at one extreme, and universities, ministries and government as a whole at the other. They take in cl;lsses, seminars, schools, links ofvarious sorts such as ktween the forecasters and the audience for their forecasts; and they include research. not only into forecasting but also into the delivery and dissemination of forecasts and warnings and the responses, perception and reactions to them. Developed and some developing countries have extended their preparedness and the meteorological, hydrological and other geoscience products supporting it into new areas during the “decade”. They have forged closer dialogue between the scientific community and stakeholders in various am of endeavour. such as agriculture, health and transport. They have made good progress with dialogue with socjal scientists, but this area still needs more attention. Catering for preparedness of the disadvantaged md diwbled has also not progressed to the desire3 extent and greater use of plain and meaningful language is seen zi highly advantageous in the better communication of forecasts and warnings. Indeed the language of preparedness measures and forecasts determine the way these messages are accepted In many cases the use of a dialect could improve effectiveness and credibility. Confirmation of such messages is also an important consideration. Using mobile phones and pagers to propagate these messages and means other than radio and television have distinct benefits. Education and training applied in the direction of those scientists building the preparedness measures as weIl as those they are designed for. Indian experience ofworkshops between f o r a t e r r and the users of their forecasts pointed to the value of such exchanges. However, there are differences when wrying the message to adults ds opposed to children There are advantages attached to the education of school children in disaster preparedness parents benefit as well and this has been made evident during the IDNDR Developing - their countries trying to build their preparedness face enormous costs and also the much greater costs of reconstruction in the wake of a disaster. Future Actions The Sub-Forum recognized that, w a result of population increase and concentration and other factors, our societies are k o m i n g more and more vulnerable and that our protective systems are not necessarily adapted to cope. Furthermore, considering that a disaster strategy which puts emphasis solely on relief and response is shorr-sighted and not cost-effective, the participants agreed on the need for greater emph&s on prevention across the whole continuum of hazards faced by humanity. for a construction of a “Culture of Prevention’ whim should be based on The Sub-Forum recalled that the 1994 Yokohoma World Conference on Natural Disaster Reduction called improved short-term and long-term monitoring mechanisms Mitigation, preparedness and prevention measures must be proactive rather than reactive; they must provide the correct treatment while there is still time. Prevention must be rooted ultimately in culture and education which finds its expression in our everyday social behaviour. Hence, the threat of potentially irreversible events includes an ethical dimension which should be reflected in training, organization and motivation of communities at risk Capacity building and education at all levels have an important role to play in the development of a culture of prevention by ensuring a two-way flow of information between decision-makers and communities at risk. The Sub-Forum emphasized the need for capacity building in vulnerability and risk assessment, early warning of both short-lived natural disasters and long-term hazards associated with environmental change, improved preparedness, adaptation, mitigation of their adverse effects and the integration of disaster management into overall national socio-economic development planning. The participnts agreed that a focused ongoing coordination structure is needed within the UN system in order to strengthen further the already close cooperation among intergovernmental and non-governmental scientific and technical bodies committed to natural disaster reduction. Such a mechanism is necessary to foster and sustain thevital international and national effort on the application of the natural and social sciences and technology in support of natural disaster reduction, particularly through the implementation of the relevant programmes of UNESCO and WMO. EXTRATROPICAL STORMS Mr. W. Appleby, Environment Canada, Atmospheric Environment, Canada Speaker: Large-scale, mid-latitude, storms are the main muse OF blizzards, freezing rain and heavy snowfall in winter and can also cause intense rainfall, hailstorms, or spawn tornado families. The 1990s have seen an increase in the cost of natural disasters resulting from these storms. During 1989-90, a series of intense winter storms struck northern Europe causing over 200 deaths and billions of dollars in damage. In July 1’3-96, a low pressure system dumped 200mm of rain in the River region of Quebec in Canada and the resulting flash floods killed at least 10 people, Saguenay 16,000 people had to be evacuated and lOSSe5 were over US$ 500 million. The 1998 flooding of the Yangtze River in China was the most costly disaster of the year, claiming 4, I !W lives, affecting 223 rnitlion people and causing $30 billion in damage. Significant achievements during the Decade include improved forecast accuracy, resulting from improvements in numerical models, supported by enhanced observational systems and increased emphasis on user requirements and effective messaging. Using computer models, many extratropical storms can now be predicted well ahead of time and the timely issue of early warnings helps to mitigate their impacts. For the future, it Is critical that investments contrnue in surface and space-based observational networks, telecommunications and computer systems and numerical weather prediction along with related research and development. Since more people are living in vulnerable areas and, in many instances, they are taking inadequate precautions against extratropical storms, it is equally vital that emphasis continue to be placed on enhancing public awareness and understanding of hazards, early warnings and mitigation and preparedness actions. killed over SEVERE LOCAL STORMS AND TORNADOES Dr. H. Brooks, NOAA/Nationd Severe Storms Laboratory, USA Speaker: Severe convective weather such as tornadoes, hail, damaging wind gats and flash floods presents a serious threat to life and property in many parts of the world. Destructive tornadoes have been observed in all continents except Antarctica and their Occurrence is, probably, vastly under-reported In the Pacific and the Carribean, landfalling tropical cyclones often spawn tornadoes. Dunng the past 20 years, devastating tornado occurrences have resulted iv hundreds of fatalities in places as far apart as Moscow and Bangladesh. Severe hailstorms, flash floods and dangerous wind gusts are also very widely experienced and damage from these non-tornadic events can also be catastrophic. In the last 1 5 years, hailstorms have c a d damage in excess of US8500 million from Munich, Germany to Denver, USA and Sydney, Australia. A flash flood 80 people at Biexlas in the Swish Pyrenees. Around the world, press recentiy reports are common of damage to buildings, aircraft, trees and crops caused by srrong convective gusts. Significant progress has been made in understanding and modelling severe convective storms. Though increasing numbers of tornadoes have been reported in the US and property damage has increasecl in recent years, the annual death toll has dropped significantly. The decrease in fatalities is due to improvements in scientific understanding of severe storm formarion, in observing technology and in The preparation and communication of warnings dong with aggressive and successful public awareness and preparedness programs. Notable accomplishments include more widespread application of weather radars, particularly Doppler, leading to significantty increased lead times for tornado warnings and improved detection of heavy precipitation, enhanced observational coverage through automatic weather stations, improved tools such as workstations, advances in numerical moclels and improved public awareness of severe weather, particularly tornadoes. This has already led to a doubling of warning times, jumping from about nine minutes in 1990 to over 1 7 minutes in 1999. The success of the above integrated approach combining improved storm detection, forecasting and warnings delivery with enhanced public awareness and education and well- exercised preparedness and response measures, makes it clear that this strategy should be transferred to all regions at risk. Particular issues for the future also include the need to: improve climatological estimates of the threats presented by severe weather; address probable under- reporting of severe weather occurrences; transfer research results and advanced forecast techniques; and to lessen the vulnerability of buildings and structures to severe weather phenomena. ProF. L. A Ogallo, Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi, Kenya DROUGHT Speaker: Droughts are normal components of climate variability though their effects are, all too frequently, seriously exacerbated by human factors such as population growth, inappropriate agricultural and forestry practices, poor or no planning and war. The adverse impacts of severe droughts are well known - forced migrations of people and animals, shortages of food, water, energy and other basic necessities, envrronmental degradation and disastrous mass starvation necessitating the mobilization of huge international relief efforts. Developing countries, particulady in Africa, continue to k both particularly vulnerable and limited in their ability TO imptement costly mitigation and preparedness measures. In most developed countries, a reduction in vulnerability to drought has been achieved through the ongoing application of scientific and technological cnpacity. Related measures include the use of historical climate records and scientific and technical knowledge as a basis for risk assessment and zoning, land use planning, selection OF appropriate agricultural practices, design of water storage and delivety systems and the development of insurance schemes and other realistic disaster preparedness policies. More immediate mitigation and preparedness measures build upon systematic monitoring of climatic and hydrological systems to provide early warning of developing droughts. These approaches are being transferred to developing countries through initiatives such as the establishment of Drought Monitoring Centres. The Centre in Nairobi, for example, has achieved commendable results in drought monitoring, seasonal weather forecasting and capacity building in the Eastern Africa sub-region. Its products are disseminated widely and usecl for agricultural and water resources management and form a crucid component of early warning systems for food security in the sub-region. During the next century, an increase in vulnerability to drought may be expected as a result of development pressures and population increases. Global warming may, in addition, increase the fkequency of recurrence ofdrought-producing weather conditions in some regons. It isvital, therefore, that very high priority continues to be given to programs aimed at reducing global and regional vulnerability to drought. Key challenges to be faced include the development of the essenrial scientific and technical capacity in vulnerable regions, the establishment and maintenance of adequate meteorological and hydrological monitoring networks. improving seamnal and inter-annual prediction, implementing effective public education and disaster prevention and preparedness policies and ensuring ongoing technology transfer. The Drought Monitoring Centres, in particular, need to be strengthened and their computing and modelling capabilities enhanced along with improving real-time transfer of data and products throughout the sub-regionb). FOREST FIRES Mr. 8. Sol, Meteo-France, Bureau Etudes et Developpement, Direction interregionale sud-est, France the probability of forest fire outbreaks on the beis of meteorological During active fires, wind, precipitritiorl and humidity forecasts for fire sites enable fire- Speaker: Fighting forest and bush fires involves very large expenditures by communities and governments and the after-effects of large fires are generally felt for many years. Witd fires result in extensive damage to vegetation, human settlements and industries, along with closures of roads, railways arid airports, evacuations of people. disruption or death of domestic animals and wildlife and occasional loss of human life. They car1 almcreate significant resional problems such as occurred in 1994 when fire razed over five million hectares of bush. plnntation and forest in Indonesia, generating thick haze which severely affected Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei Darussnlam. At times visibility was reduced to as low as 500 meters, disrupting air transport, causing poor air quality and an increase in eye irritation and respiratory problems. Early identification of high fire hazard enables preventive or mitigating measures to be taken. As a result ot tesearch conducted over the past several decades, reliable techniques now exist for estirnatincg conditions. Forecasts of high forest fire risk, made a day or two in advance. are of great value in initiating preventive measures such as forest closures, restrictions on losing and banning of open-air burning as well as in alerting and prc-positioning fire fighting personnel and warning the population. fighting crews to anticimte fire movement and khaviour, thereby increaing their efficiency and effectieness and reducing overall costs. The provision of timely early warnings of high fire risk and short range predictions of fire behaviour is criticiilly dependent on the existence of adequate surface and space-based observational networks, reliable telecommunications and well-trained meteorological and forestry specialists The establishment and maintenance d a close. ongoing. relationship between National Meteorologicd Services and forest fire agencies and the conduct of effective public education and awareness campaigns are also essential ingredients in achieving optimum effecriveness in fire prevention, preparedness and mitigation. Consequently, future efforts to reduce forest fires disasters should focus on the development of observational and communications infrastructure, specialized professional expertise, inter-agency liaison and coordination, skills in the conduct of public awareness campaigns and facilitate the transfer and implementation of operationally proven fire risk kssessment techniques. usually involved, such as lOO,OOO, caused over U582.5 billion and 1988 US EXTREME TEMPERATURES Dr. C. Jendritsky, German Meteorological Service, Freiburg, Germany Speaker: Many deaths result from cold waves and damage to crops, livestock, power supplies, transportation and other components of inhastructure can be enormous. Around 275 people died during the 1992 cold wave in India while similar conditions resulted in 298 deaths in central and eastern Europe during November and December 1998. Over 1 million farm animals died in 1 986: extreme cold in late April 199 1 destroyed the grape harvest in much of France and China in W / o of the Brazilian coffee harvest was destroyed in June-July 1994. Low temperatures alone, however, rarely cause disaster and other compounding factors are freezing rain, heavy snowfall or high winds. For example, the 5 - 10 January 1998 Ice Storm, the worst in Canadian histoy, resulted from a prolonged period of freezing rain and left 4 million people without power, necessitated the evacuation ofover damage in Canada and the neighhuring US and took 23 lives. Prolonged heatwaves also impose severe stresses on people and economies. A b u t 1,500 lives were lost in China in 1988, over 2,000 died in Greece in 1997 and, in 1998, a record 3,028 people died in a heat wave in India. Economic damages in the Mexican event of 1’3% were over US$1.2 billion, reached US$13 billion in the exceeded US$1 drought/heat wave 1992 in southern Africa. billion in Urban populations, particularty the poor and elderly, are especially vulnerable as the heat island e f k t prevents nightime temperatures from dropping sufficiently to provide relief. Mitigation and preparedness for cold and heat waves requires the assessment of historical climate records, planning and design to accommodate extreme temperatures (especially in densely settled areas), implementation of early warning systems and ongoing dissemination of advice to the public. National Meteorological Services already contribute significantly by issuing early warnings of extreme winter weather and heat waves and supplying climatic analyses. An integrated heat watch/warning system, currently k i n g extended internationally at the initiative of WMO, WHO and UNEP, is an example of technology transfer which will further assist in preparedness when tailored to local conditions. To prevent further disasters, efforts must continue to enhance national and regional capcities to prepare for, warn of and withstand temperature extremes and related weather phenomena. In particular, heat watch/warning systems adapted to local conditions should be established In the most vulnerable rnegacities around the world. DUST AND SAND STORMS Dr. A. A. Hnssan, Meteorological Authority, Cairo, Egypt Speaker: Sand and dust storms are natural events which occur widely around the world, in aid and semi- arid regions, temperate, tropical and sub-tropical latitudes. They are one of the most unpleasant weather phenomenaand can be hazardous to transportation and navigation and for human health. Severe or prolonged dust and sand storms also result in major diusters. A dust storm which lasted for 5 hours near Iingchang, China caused 640 million yuan in economic damage over a wide area and injured and killed upwards of 300 people. In mid-March 19% the Middle East was hit by choking sandstorms, claiming four lives, leaving 29 people injured. forcing the Suez canal, airports and seaports to close and bathing the region in an eerie yellow light. The arid region around the Arabian Sea experiences the highest h-equency of dust storms with Over 30 per year occurring in the area joining Iran. Afghanistan and Pakistan. In Egypt, sandstorms -- called “khamsin (fifty)” for the number of days on which they can occur -- are a semnal hazard and in 1997.18 people died when that county was hit by the worst sandstorm in 30years. Dust storms occur on avaiety ofspatial scales from mesoxale/regional to continental and remove large quantities of surface sediments and topsoil along with nutrients and seeds. Timely early warnings of impending sand and dust storms are critical to preparedness for these, at times, disastrous events. National Meteorological Services in affected countries now prepare and issue such warnings when expected weather conditions favour their development. Longer-term mitigative measures are also being pursued such as the planting of trees and vegetation cover, modification of agricultural practices and public education initiatives. For the future, efforts must continue to increase our understanding of duststorms and the factors which influence their development. movement and decay to improve our ability to provide early warnings of these events. In addition, longer term miti@tiie measures aimed at increasing awareness and reducing vulnerability and exposure must continue to be pursued. EARTHQUAKES Dr. A. Green, Institute of Geophysics, Zurich, Switzerland Dr. W. Hays, United States Geological Survey, USA 12,500 deaths in Agadir, Moroccan where traditional stone and brick houses Speaker: Speaker: Earthquakes are amongst the most damaging natural phenomena to affect the earth. Over 1.6 million people have died in earthquakes during the 20th century while huge economic losses have been incurred. The moderate (Richter scale 6.9) 1995 earthquake in Kobe, Japan, for example, produced direct economic losses reaching a new record of over $140 billion! Earthquake damage is, in general, related to the magnitude ofthe event, the quality of buildings and structures and the nature OF the ground and secondary effects such as fires, landslides and tsunamis frequently contribute substantially. In I9W, a magnitude 5.9 earthquake caused approximately were situated on loosely consolidated sediments. In contrast, a magnitude 6 earthquake in the Canadian Shield in 1988 caused no deaths in a region where houses arc usualty wood framed with relatively light roofs. Unfortunately, around the world, earthquake vulnerability is increasing rapidly as a result of flaws in planning, siting, design, construction and use of buildings, dams, transportation links and other infrastructure. Seismologists consider that very strong (Richter >8) earthquakes will eventually occur in several areas of high population and development density, possibly producing losses up to an astounding $2,000 billion! This provides a wake-up call for responsible risk management. Earthquakes will, inevitably, continue to occur, particularly along the boundaries of tectonic plates, but we cannot predict exactly where, when or what will k their magnitude. In a few regions, however, useful early warning systems are possible for approaching seismic waves from distant earthquakes and such systems have k e n implemented in a few locations. Their effectiveness is dependent on very fast seismographic and computer-communications infrastructure capable of disseminating information in advance of the arrival of dangerous shear and surface waves (i.e. within seconds to a minute or so). For the future, since every dollar spent on mitigation and preparedness is estimated to save ten dollars in recovery and reconstruction costs, continued emphasis on earthquake mitigation and preparedness makes economic sense. The scientific and technical information required to characterize earthquake hazard and community vulnerability is now readily available in ail countries. The general level of seismicity across broad areas can be forecast for the next tens to hundreds ofyears and nearly all countries now have regional seismic h a r d maps. The next step towards preparedness is to conduct detailed vulnerability studies. As a result of the IDNDR, several major projects are underway aimed at improving worldwide earthquake mitigation and preparedness, such as the World Seismic Safety Initiative, RADIUS project and the Earthquake and Megacities Initiative. For the future, reduction of vulnerability to earthquakes is, clearly, an urgent goal for the coming decades. It is, moreover, one that is realizable as policy makers and stakeholders now have many earthquake mitigation options available. These include insurance, construction codes and standards, remediation and retrofit, demolition of hazardous structures, relocations, siting and land-use criteria, training and exercises. The key to success will be to integrate risk assessment and risk management its an ongoing strategy aimed at avoidance of Raws in planning, design, siting, construction and use which create or increase vulnerability. Canuti, Earth Science Department, University of Firenze, Italy LANDSLIDES Dr. P. and Speaker: Landslides occur in all regions of the worfd when masses of rock, earth, mine waste or debris move down slopes anci result from rainstorms. earthquakes, volcanic eruptions md various human activities. They usually strike without warning destroying landscapes, buildings and homes, breaking electrical, water, gas, and sewage lines and disrupting roads and railways. Landslides 1998 hurricane sewns in Central disastrous rnudflows during the 1997 and America and the Caribbean caused untold damage and the tragic loss of thousands of lives in vulnerable communities. Landslides in the United States alone are estimated to cause an annual of about $1.5 billion and at least 25 fatalities and many areas of the globe are even more vulnerable. 10% Mitigation of the irripacts of landslides requires hazard and vulnerability assessments and the implementation of risk management policies and strategies including public awareness campaigns, planning and development regulations, and construction codes and standards. Landslide, mudflow and debris-flow problems are often caused by mismanagement including unwise land-use practices on ground of questionable stability, particularly in mountain. canyon, and coastal regions. Significant progress has been made in that geotechnical experts can identify areas vulnerable to land slippage and provide early warnings of landslide hazards and advice on preparedness measures, such i\s evacuations. h d - u s e zoning, in partnership with professional inspections and proper design, can alleviate many of the problems associated with landslide hazards. Additional disaster mitigation measures include planting ground cover on slopes, or water leaksmd building ctmririels, deflection walls installing flexible pipe fittings to avoid g* to redirect the flow and insurance. For the future, achievement of a reduction in the tragic consequences of severe landslides and rnudflows around the world requires continued emphasis on risk assessment and risk management, utiliLing increasing scientific understanding of the factors which lead to landslides to develop and implement policies which will reduce exposure and vulnerability to these hazards. AVALANCHES Dr. P Fohn, Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research, Switzerlmd Speaker: A v W k are a major hazard in many mountainous countries. They re5ult in substantial loss of life, such it5 the 75 fatalities recorded in the European Alps during Ianuary-February IW. dl50 k very substantial, reaching I billion Swiiss francs in Switzehd Avalanche damage GUI during the past winter, for example. Around the world. vulnerability to avalanches d l i continue to increase as winter recreational activitis and facilities expand in mountainuus regions. Effective long rerm prevenrive measures to reduce avalanche vulnerabiliry include hazard mapping. land use pl.mning. development of protective forests and installation of protective stmctures. Short-term measures include avalanche forecasting, the issue of avalanche warnings, artificial rclcms of snow masses, road and rail closures and evacuations. Some govermnenh already invest heavily in such avalanche proteclion measures because of their demonstrated I S billion cost eiicctieness Over the past 50year5, ior example, abut Swis. francs has been invested in protective structures in Switzerland. in addition to the resources devoted to forecasting, hazard zoning and protfctiie forests. For the future. implementation of avalanc.he risk assessment and risk management is fuixhnental to the achiwmnent of reductions in vulnerability. While this approach already in place in m e countnes, it needs to be extended to other vulnerable regions. In order to improve its application, nceds also exist for continued research into snow pack phpical proceses improved avalanche forecast and hazard mapping tccchniques better' lechnical and construction medsures and enhanced risk management methods. TSUNAMIS Dr. C. McCrecry. PacificTsunami Warning Center, USA remh c d i n e s bays or inlets Ixnvever, they interact with the sea floor. reduce sped and build arc particulnriy vulnerable. Speaker: Earthquakes, vulmiiic eruptions or shifts in the sea bottom generate v e y large. fast-moving "tsunamis". These huge waves travel at speeds in excess of loo0 km/hrm the waves known open sea but are of such long wavelenglh ils to be barely noticeable. When they and, particularly, up to tremendous heights. presenting a majorthreatto people, animals aid structures along the shoreline. Tsunamis have resulted in &?strophic natural disasters aid the coastlines around the Pacific 0c-i Mitigation aml preparedness efforts for tsuiiaiiiis focus on the provision of timely early warnings combined with ongoing public awareness and education programs. The need lo enhance mitigation and preparedness, led UNESCO5 IOC to establish, in I=. an International Coordination Group for theTsunmii Warning System In the Pacific. The PadficTsunarni Warning Centre (mWC) in Honolulu Is the heactqumers of the International Tsunarri Warning System and works with regional and national centers in monitoring seimological and tidal stations around the Pacific Ocean to evaluate earthquakes for rheirptentiai togenerate tsunamis. IOC also malntains an International Twnami Information Center (KK) which is responsible for monitoring warning programs. recommending improvements, assisting Member States to establish national warning systems, hsterhg research arid improving preparedness throughout the Pacific Octai. The Dccadc hasseen numerous improvements in tsunami mitigation. Numerical mdelling techniques have k e n improved and are now applied to runup mapping for harard &.sessmeiit and to forccasting. Historical data bases have been electronicaliy archived readily accessible. New techniques have been developed for assessing the tsunamigenic potential of large earthquakes and improved observational instrumentation has been developed and deployed. Rapid telecommunications systems have been installd and educational materials prepxed and disseminated. perids between desttuctk events. ami M e aid the Atlan~c Ocean. Low cost Forthe future, progress needs to continue in all of the above areas. New local and regional warning systems should be establishK1 in the Pacific and other Deem basins that a e without warning coverage. In particular, a more coordinated approach to the provision of warnings would be of benefit in the Mediterranean, the Caribbean automated techniques need to k developed for wartling agajmt lkaI tsunamis and installed in regions at risk. corlst,,l regions at risk from landslide/subrnafine slump induced tsunamis need to be identified and strategies devilsed LO help protect their communities. In addition, tsunami education needs to be institutionalized to innintain adequare awareness Over the long time STORM SURGES Dr. T.S. Murty, Senior Scientist, Canada Speaker: The combination of strong onshore winds, low atmospheric pressure and high astronomical tides can result in exceptionally high water levels known as storm surges. Around the world, storm surges present a major natural hazard in many vulnerable coastal and island regions. Large storm surges, with amplitudes up to several meters, are generated by tropical cyclones and regularly cause great destruction in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans, the Bay of Ekngal and the Gulf of Mexico. In 1970, a tropical cyclone induced storm surge sweeping over the coastal wetlands resulted in catastrophic damage and the deaths of 300,000 people in Bangladesh while a similar tragedy in 1 9 9 1 killed over 100,OOO. Storm surges caused by extra-tropical storms sometimes also result in deaths and in catastrophic damage, as experienced by low-lying countries around the North Sea on a number of cccasions during the past several decades. In the future, sea level rise associated with global warming and land subsidence along vulnerable coastlines may increase the amplitude of storm surges and increase vulnerability to them. Concern also exists that a rise in sea surface temperatures may increase the percentage of tropical cyclones which reach coastlines, leading to an increase in the frequency of damaging surges. Mitigation and preparedness for storm surges involves a combination of measures including risk assessments, vulnerability reducing initiatives, provision of early warnings of impending surge events and evacuation planning to remove people h-om exposed, low-lying, areas. Efforts to reduce vulnerability encompass structural measures, such as sea walk, harages and dykes and risk zoning, land use and development planning. The provision of timely early warnings of storm surges combined with solid evacuation plans is, however, critical to disaster reduction in the face of these most dangerous events. During the Decade, great progress has k e n made in implementing early warning sptems and in timely dissemination of warnings to the public as well a5 in public awareness and education. This is reflected in the dramatic decline in deaths due to storm surges from thouunds each year to a few hundred annually. For the future, a major challenge for the early warning community is to reduce the number of “false alarms” which cause unnecessary evacuations in the most vulnerable regions. Furthermore, the predicted location and magnitude of surges must be pinpointed with much greater accuracy. Achievement of these improvements will require 5ubstantial investment in research directed towards improving the prediction methods. In addition, public awareness and education efforts must continue to k supported as essential components of preparedness and mitigation. VOLCANOES Mr. Speaker: Punongbayan, Philippines Malling, UNEISCO. On behalf of Dr. R has 5. rock-debris above the surFace As dramatically demonstrated by the violent eruptions oFMount Y. Helens in 1980, Pinatubo in 1 9 9 1 and more recent catastrophic events in the Caribbean and elsewhere, volcanoes can weak great havoc and devastation in the short term. They can also produce serious impacts over the medium and longer term, forcing evacuations, interfering with transport, increasing the acidity of precipitation and cooling global temperatures. Submarine volcanoes are also common features on certain zones of the ocean floor and some are active, occasionally blasting steam and of the sea or generating dangerous tsunami waves. of volcanism such as fertile soils, access to geothermal energy and industrial raw In the face of these hazards, the challenge to policy makers and scientists is, therefore, to mitigate the adverse impacts of volcanic eruptions so that society may continue to benefit from products materials. Mitigation of the adverse impacts of volcanic eruptions requires that we improve the capability for predicting these events and providing earty warnings of potentially disastrous events. It also requires that decision makers and the general public are provided with the best possible information on high-risk volcanoes, to underpin sound decisions on land-use planning and public &ty. Considerable advances have k n made in recent decades and scientists have the ability to predict their future behaviour. During the Decade, predictive ability has improved and hardware such as single component disposable seismometers more accessible. Capcity has become been enhanced in developing countries but further work is needed. In the aviation context, mention must also be made of the ICAO/WMO Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres which now issue forecasts of the trajectories of volcanic plumes as a contribution to flight safety. For the Future, emphasis needs to continue on preventive and preparedness measures which have been initiated but are still embryonic in most developing countries. Similarly, efforts kgun in selected countries and locations but much more work is neecled to raise awareness have in the years to come, TROPICAL CYCLONES Dr. C. Holland, Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Australia Speaker: Tropical cyclones are rightty feared as being amongst the most dangerous of the natural hazards. They are potentially the most destructive ofall systems that affect coastal communities in tropicat and subtropical countries. Increasing population and development density in such communities will continue to result in increased economic and xaal disruption from tropical cyclones Scientific research and technical development have generated remarkable improvements in tropical cyclone forecasting and community response during the IDNDR Contributing factors include continuing research emphasis on tropical cyclones, increases in computing power and the skill of numerical models, improving observational and communications capability and a growing recognition of the vital importance of public education and community preparedness in the face of these devastating storms. At the end of the Decade, we have a strong community across all related disciplines, research meteorologists, Forecasters and social scientists, applied to the reduction of tropical cyclone impacts. It is imperative that this be expanded and applied to further improving the safety and reducing the economic losses of affected communities. In this context, the recent establishment of the WWRP is welcomed and their emphasis on high impact weather is strongly endorsed. Their establishment OF a tropical cyclone landfall program is seen as a logical vehicle for canying the rezarch and development initiatives into the 2 1 st century. The WWRP approach of wcing research and development programs through to the forecast demonstration stage ensures a strong operational perspective It is pleasing that the WMO/ICSU development, under the IDNDR, of a pilotless aircraft to improve rhe obselvations of tropical cyclones has reached the stage of the aircraft moving to operational uw Provided that the impetus generated during the IDNDR can be maintained, the outlook is optimistic for substantial improvements in tropical cyclone forecast accuracy leading to more accurate and timely earty warnings and enhanced preparedness for cyclone landfalls. Serious concern remains that the budgetaty pressures being felt by governments may further undercut weather observing networks and torecasting and communications systems which are essential to the realization of these improvements. FLOODS Speaker: Dr. T.A. Khan, Bangladesh Huge emnomicmd socjal losses result from flooding in river floodplains and coastal regions subject to storm-surges and vulnerability is increasing in parallel with economic development. Floods continue to kill vast numbers of people, particularly in developing countries though the toll has declined significantly due to advances in early warning combined with planned evacuation to safe areas. In the future, climate change may compound the problem through sea-level rise, resulting in regrading of river-beds and more frequent overtopping of hnks and levees. It may alSo enable an increasing percentage of tropical cyclones to reach coastlines, one study suggests an increase of about 30% is likely in the number of tropical cyclones which make landfall. Substantial progress has ken made in preparedness for flooding, issuance of timely early warnings and organized evacuations. Around the world, basin-wide land and water management is increasingly being used to mitigate floods and reduce vulnerability to them. Flood-protection structures provide real benefits but can also increase vulnerability by encouraging unwise developments. During floods, the greatest contribution that governments can make is often, however, to enable people to save their lives by warning them and facilitating their evacuation to safe areas. Consequently, provision of tirnety early warnings of flood events is a fundamental contribution to preparedness and mitigation and has resulted in saving many lives during the Decade. For the future, risk assessment remains critically important in mitigating the effects of flooding. There is a need for continuing research and capacity building efforts to improve preparedness and strengthen early warning and other mitigation aspects. Structural measures, land use and planning approaches, forecasting and warning systems, identification o r construction oFsafe havens and public eclucation and awareness initiatives all play vital roles in achieving these objectives. In developing countries, investment is required in capacity building to keep floods away from people and keep people away from floods as well as in the more readily-funded “clean up afterwards” option. Speech/Presentation Title "Public Perception, Economic Dept. ofcivil Engineering, Prof. Alexander COPING STUDIES Eduation Needs, OPENlNC CEREMONY "Despite dedicated efforts, number and cost of natural disasters continue to rise" Address "A Message from the Yokohama Conference to the Programme Forum in Geneva and Beyond to the 2 1 st Century" Message from the President of the Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) Aqxcts and An African Perspecitve" the United Nations WMO Jaw P.R China ECOSOC French National Cornmitee for IDNDR costa Ria United Nations Scientific Mr. R Hamilton, mciTedu7ical Committee USA, Rapporteur General (STC) on Natural Disaster Reduction University of Pretoria, South Africa. Speaker Secretary-General Mr. Kofi Annan Secretary-General Prof. C.0.P OW1 H.E. Ambassador N. A h o Permanent Representative of Japan , President of the Programme Forum H.E. Fan Baojun, Vice Chairman and Secretq-General of CNCIDNDR, Vice Minister of Civil Affairs H.E. Ambassador Fuld , President d ECOSOC Mr Ch. Kert, President and member of the French Parliament H.E. A. Fischel, Vice President of Costa R i a and Chair of the IDNDR Meeting for the Americas of the Programme Forum and Chairman of the United Nations STC on Natural Disaster Reduction Speech/Presentation Title "Diuster Resilient Infrastwcture" Lzlhratory of Hydrology Prof. Dr. H.E.M. Minor and Glaciology of "Technology For Disaster Reduction" EDUCATION AND 50CIO-ECONOMIC CONCERNS of Tokyo EDUCATING FUTURE GENERATIONS Educating for the future: The Risk 8, Society initiative Mode The Power of film-based learning in risk reduction Networking for Education for Disaster Reduction - An Indian view L'ducation des generations Ministere de I'environ- Mr. Jacques Faye futures Clohal Forum of for nement,Paris, France Canadian National Committee IDNDR University of the Western M s . A. Holloway Cape Cape Town N O ' S Diwter Reduction CML SOCIETY AND PARTNERSHIPS U S National Report to California Institute of the IDNDR Programme Forum Technology, California Incentives For Mitigation Center for Risk Investment and More Effective Management and Risk Management. The Need Decision Processes. Public-Private Partnership. The Wharton School. University of Pennsylvania, for Mitigation as a Public Value (From Relief to Prevention) Philadelphia USA. Property and Casualty Group Organ~ion/lnstitutlon Speaker the Swlss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland United Nations University Prof. 5. Herath (LINU) in cooperation with the International Center For Disaster Mitigation Engineering (INCEDE), University Ms. Kate White Mr. N.K. lain DirectorJoint Assistance Centre, India Prof. W. lwan Prof. Howard Kunreuther Ms. G. Craven Speech/Presentation Title The Critical Role of Private/ Public Alliances to Ensure Community Disaster Preparedness: An International Disaster Recovery Business Alliance ASSESSMENT AND PROJfCTlON Latina El Caribe: El America Impacto de lo5 Desastres Naturales en el Desarrollo, 1972- 1 9 9 9 The Asian Experience: Impacts of Recent Disasters Sede Subregional de la CEPAL Environment and Resources Development Division ESCAP Economic Commission Responses and k g k o k Declaration Socio-Economic Conditions in Africa and Risk Management EMPOWERMENT OF LOCAL COMMUNITIES Transforming Risk into Opportunity: Empowering Vulnerable Communities La Red, Lima, Peru for Afnca DISASTERS, ECONOMY AND TRADE UNCTAD’s Mandate on the Impact of Natural Disasters in Tourism Disasters, trade and the Developing Countries Economy of Least Developed Special Coordinator for Countries and Small Island UNCTAD Goods and services Office of the UNCTAD and Commodities Least De\elo@ Countries and hd-locked Division on International Trade in Organization/lndtution & MLC Associates Incorporated, USA SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACT Natural Mr. C. Ertuna Mr. Rjcardo Zapata Mar Mr. Ousmane Laye Mr. F. Rrunirez Mr. D. Diaz Encontre Mr. P. and Island Developing Countries Speaker Ak. M.L. Canido